French presidential election 2027 odds

What this market asks

Who will win the next French presidential election? Polymarket lists each possible winner as a Yes/No market, and a candidate's price is the market's implied probability that they win the presidency, so a 10-cent share means roughly a 10% chance. The market covers the whole contest, including a possible second round. It follows the next election whether it is held on schedule or earlier. The list also includes people who have not declared a candidacy.

Emmanuel Macron cannot stand again: the French constitution bars a president from serving more than two consecutive terms. That makes this an open race, with no incumbent on the ballot.

How it resolves and key dates

The President of France is elected in two rounds. A candidate who wins more than 50% of the vote in the first round wins outright. If nobody does, the top two candidates meet in a runoff two weeks later. The Council of Ministers confirmed the dates on July 1, 2026: the first round on Sunday, April 18, 2027, and the runoff on Sunday, May 2, 2027.

The market resolves to the candidate who wins, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it follows the official results from the French Ministry of the Interior. If the result is not known by December 31, 2027 (11:59 PM ET), it resolves to Other.

What moves these odds

The biggest single factor is who is actually allowed and willing to run. Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzling European Parliament funds in March 2025 and given an immediate five-year ban from public office. On July 7, 2026, the Paris Court of Appeal upheld the conviction but cut the ban to 45 months, 30 of them suspended, which left her free to stand. The same day she confirmed she will run and said she would appeal to France's highest court, the Court of Cassation, which has said it could rule by early April 2027 at the latest. Any further legal news can move her price sharply, and every other candidate's with it.

Beyond that, prices follow first-round polling, the fragmentation of the centre, right and left (many candidates split the same voters) and who looks likely to reach the runoff. Runoff polls matter more than first-round numbers, because the winner has to beat one rival head to head. Declared candidates include Édouard Philippe, Bruno Retailleau, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Gabriel Attal and Raphaël Glucksmann, who won the Socialist primary in October 2026. Each new declaration or withdrawal reshuffles the market.

How to back a pick

On Polymarket you buy shares of the outcome you pick. Each share pays $1 if that candidate wins and nothing if they do not, so a share bought at 25 cents turns $20 into $80 if the pick wins (before any fees) and into $0 if it does not. Prices move all the time, you can sell before the result, and you can lose your whole stake. France is on Polymarket's close-only list, so check our availability page for where you can open new positions. This is information, not financial advice.