Montecarlaw
0xb524…0808 · Joined October 15, 2025
Montecarlaw has made $14K in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #11,506 all time by profit, with 3.7M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Nov 2, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$14K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 3.7M
- Portfolio value
- $14K
- Profit this month
- +$254
- Win rate (last 198 settled)
- 64%
If you had copied Montecarlaw
What $100 would be worth now if you had mirrored every position Montecarlaw opened, in proportion to their stakes. Positions still open are valued at today's price.
Last 30 days
$100 → $99
−1% across 104 positions, 62% in profit. Best +$740, worst −$1,331.
Last 90 days
$100 → $100
+0% across 339 positions, 67% in profit. Best +$4,150, worst −$5,896.
Hindsight, not a forecast: it assumes you got the same prices as Montecarlaw, with no fees, slippage or delay. See how we calculate it and how other top traders compare.
Copy this trader on Polymarket (affiliate link)How Montecarlaw has traded
Polymarket lists 198 settled positions for this wallet with activity since Sep 2, 2026. Of them, 126 (64%) ended in profit and 72 in a loss, for a net −$1,298 in profit and loss. The simple average entry price on them was 63%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. 143 of the 198 are about sports, judging by keywords in the market titles. Positions on markets that have not ended are not counted above. Of the 10 largest positions on markets that have not ended, listed below and worth $7,953 together, the biggest is “Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?” (No) at 34% of that value.
How we count: a position is one outcome of one market. It is settled when the trader sold or redeemed it, or when its market resolved while the trader still held it; Polymarket keeps listing that last kind as open until it is redeemed, so we read those too. Positions that cost under $1, ones that ended exactly even and ones on markets still running are left out, and each position is dated by its last activity. Profit is Polymarket's own figure per position. Computed by WhaleSays from public Polymarket data; it describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
The largest profits across this wallet's history: positions it sold or redeemed, and ones on markets that settled in its favor and are not redeemed yet.
W75 Le Neubourg: Demi Tran vs Sachia Vickery
Demi Tran · entry 42% · closed Sep 15, 2026
+$4,150
ITF koksijde: Alessio Basile vs Nicolas Robert
Nicolas Robert · entry 67% · closed Aug 11, 2026
+$3,763
Will Italy win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
Yes · entry 51% · closed Feb 22, 2026
+$2,564
ITF Roehampton: Alice Tubello vs Emily Appleton
Emily Appleton · entry 48% · closed Aug 6, 2026
+$2,259
ITF Laval: Keegan Rice vs Kenta Miyoshi
Kenta Miyoshi · entry 63% · closed Jul 12, 2026
+$1,854
Kingston 2: Enmanuel Munoz vs Thomas Fancutt
Enmanuel Munoz · entry 9% · closed Aug 23, 2026
+$1,694
ITF Ourense: Greet Minnen vs Isabella Shinikova
Isabella Shinikova · entry >99% · closed Aug 7, 2026
+$1,669
ITF M25 Oviedo Men: Alejandro Garcia Carbajal vs Javier Barranco Cosano
Alejandro Garcia Carbajal · entry 75% · closed Aug 25, 2026
+$1,503
ITF Champaign: Billy Suarez vs Mitchell Sheldon
Mitchell Sheldon · entry 74% · closed Jul 22, 2026
+$1,324
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Maribor (Slovenia), clay: Mak Mikovic vs Nik Mikovic
Nik Mikovic · entry 60% · closed Aug 26, 2026
+$1,314
Biggest losses
The largest losses across this wallet's history, including markets that settled against it and were never redeemed (Polymarket lists those as open, not closed).
ITF M25 Kursumlijska Banja 3 Men: George Lazarov vs Gabriele Pennaforti
Gabriele Pennaforti · entry 71% · closed Aug 12, 2026
−$5,896
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W50 Oldenzaal (Netherlands), clay: Beatrise Zeltina vs Britt Du Pree
Beatrise Zeltina · entry 64% · closed Aug 28, 2026
−$2,603
Kingston 2: Enmanuel Munoz vs Thomas Fancutt
Thomas Fancutt · entry >99% · closed Aug 23, 2026
−$2,233
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
No · entry 50% · closed Oct 27, 2026
−$1,981
ITF Londrina: Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos vs Carlos Maria Zarate
Carlos Maria Zarate · entry 70% · closed Aug 7, 2026
−$1,977
ITF W50 Hamburg Women: Laima Vladson vs Alina Granwehr
Alina Granwehr · entry 95% · closed Aug 12, 2026
−$1,765
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Yes · entry 79% · closed Jul 24, 2026
−$1,663
Hamburg: Olle Wallin vs Carlos Taberner
Carlos Taberner · entry 81% · closed Aug 11, 2026
−$1,651
US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier
Zachary Svajda · entry 97% · closed Sep 2, 2026
−$1,553
M25 Pozzuoli: Andrea Colombo vs Filippo Pecorini
Filippo Pecorini · entry 74% · closed Sep 10, 2026
−$1,503
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?
No · entry 94%, now 91% · ends Apr 19, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,675
−$106 P&L
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes · entry 44%, now 40% · ends Apr 19, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,064
−$184 P&L
Will Daniil Medvedev Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?
Yes · entry >99%, now 98% · market ended
$2,056
−$37 P&L
Will Flavio Cobolli Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?
Yes · entry 99%, now 99% · market ended
$1,497
−$5 P&L
Will Frances Tiafoe Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?
Yes · entry 72%, now 81% · market ended
$1,474
+$164 P&L
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes · entry 13%, now 12% · ends Apr 19, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$865
−$96 P&L
Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
No · entry 74%, now 77% · ends Jul 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$774
+$27 P&L
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes · entry 4%, now 2% · ends Apr 19, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$635
−$500 P&L
Will Rafael Jodar Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?
No · entry 57%, now 60% · market ended
$539
+$22 P&L
Will Arthur Fils Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?
Yes · entry 97%, now 98% · market ended
$503
+$8 P&L
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
No · entry 84%, now 84% · ends Apr 19, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$424
+$1 P&L
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Yes · entry 41%, now 43% · ends Apr 19, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$298
+$13 P&L
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
No · entry 16%, now 20% · ends Jul 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$108
+$20 P&L
Will Novak Djokovic Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?
Yes · entry 27%, now 9% · ends Dec 7, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$58
−$124 P&L
Will Monaco be runner-up in the 2026-27 Ligue 1?
No · entry 82%, now 43% · ends Aug 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$53
−$49 P&L
Recent trades
Bought Yes at 79%
Will Frances Tiafoe Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?
Bought Yes at 40%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Bought Dune Vaissaud at 4%
Luanda: Isabella Shinikova vs Dune Vaissaud
Bought Dune Vaissaud at 4%
Luanda: Isabella Shinikova vs Dune Vaissaud
Bought Dune Vaissaud at 4%
Luanda: Isabella Shinikova vs Dune Vaissaud
Bought Dune Vaissaud at 4%
Luanda: Isabella Shinikova vs Dune Vaissaud
Bought No at 54%
Will Rafael Jodar Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?
Bought Yes at 40%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Bought Yes at 40%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Bought Yes at 75%
Will Frances Tiafoe Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?
Bought Yes at 77%
Will Frances Tiafoe Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?
Bought Yes at 78%
Will Frances Tiafoe Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?
Bought Yes at 78%
Will Frances Tiafoe Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?
Bought Yes at 40%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Bought Yes at 96%
Will Frances Tiafoe Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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