Polymarket insider trading radar
This radar scans the latest $10K+ Polymarket trades and flags the ones that match patterns seen in publicly reported cases: a new account, a large position, a long-shot price, one-market focus and a news-driven topic. Each flag gets a 0 to 100 unusual-activity score and a plain-English reason. A flag is a reason to look closer, not proof of anything.
77
High
Highest score in the last 24 hours
A brand-new account put $20,000 on “Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio…” (Yes) at 23%.
- Account under a day old+35
- Long shot, bought at 23%+12
- 100% of recent volume in this event+15
- Politics market+15
The account was opened under a day before it bought $20,000 of “Yes” at 23%, and a win would pay about 4x the stake. 100% of its recent trading volume is in this one event.
- Trades of $10K+ scanned
- 986
- Flags (score 40+)
- 10
- Highest score
- 77
Updated · 500 buys scored from the last 24 hours, 58 wallets checked
Flagged Polymarket bets, highest score first
Each row is one wallet's buying of one outcome. Names link to public trader pages; they are Polymarket usernames or shortened wallet addresses.
77
High
democraticbroom bought Yes at 23%
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
- Account under a day old+35
- Long shot, bought at 23%+12
- 100% of recent volume in this event+15
- Politics market+15
The account was opened under a day before it bought $20,000 of “Yes” at 23%, and a win would pay about 4x the stake. 100% of its recent trading volume is in this one event.
Account age: under a day · 1 trade of $10K+ in the scan
70
Elevated
PTMF-S1 bought No at 30%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
- Account 1 day old+28
- $92K position, $25K or more+12
- 86% of recent volume in this event+15
- Politics market+15
The account was opened 1 day before it bought $92,234 of “No” at 30% across 2 trades. 86% of its recent trading volume is in this one event.
Account age: 1 day · 2 trades of $10K+ in the scan
65
Elevated
adbg101 bought Yes at 73%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
- Account under a day old+35
- 100% of recent volume in this event+15
- Politics market+15
The account was opened under a day before it bought $12,276 of “Yes” at 73%. 100% of its recent trading volume is in this one event.
Account age: under a day · 1 trade of $10K+ in the scan
65
Elevated
name-fit-investigation-overall-academy bought No at 30%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
- Account under a day old+35
- 100% of recent volume in this event+15
- Politics market+15
The account was opened under a day before it bought $11,596 of “No” at 30%. 100% of its recent trading volume is in this one event.
Account age: under a day · 1 trade of $10K+ in the scan
57
Moderate
whoareyoun bought Yes at 5%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
- Account 11 days old+12
- $34K position, $25K or more+12
- Long shot, bought at 5%+18
- Politics market+15
The account was opened 11 days before it bought $34,042 of “Yes” at 5% across 2 trades, and a win would pay about 19x the stake.
Account age: 11 days · 2 trades of $10K+ in the scan
47
Moderate
ndb1 bought Yes at 24%
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
- $294K position, $100K or more+20
- Long shot, bought at 24%+12
- Politics market+15
The wallet bought $293,546 of “Yes” at 24% across 2 trades, and a win would pay about 4x the stake.
Account age: 7 months · 2 trades of $10K+ in the scan
47
Moderate
whoareyoun bought Yes at 31%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
- Account 11 days old+12
- $149K position, $100K or more+20
- Politics market+15
The account was opened 11 days before it bought $149,000 of “Yes” at 31% across 3 trades.
Account age: 11 days · 3 trades of $10K+ in the scan
43
Moderate
5k7GFTpu9ykQ bought No at 83%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Account 2 days old+28
- World events market+15
The account was opened 2 days before it bought $11,094 of “No” at 83%.
Account age: 2 days · 1 trade of $10K+ in the scan
42
Moderate
Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl bought Hanwha Life Esports at 65%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner
- Account under a day old+35
- $540K position, $100K or more+20
- 100% of recent volume in this event+15
- Sports market, scored lower
The account was opened under a day before it bought $539,647 of “Hanwha Life Esports” at 65% across 13 trades. 100% of its recent trading volume is in this one event. Sports markets see many new accounts and big bets, so the score is reduced.
Account age: under a day · 13 trades of $10K+ in the scan
$540K
42
Moderate
Albihime217255 bought 76ers at 64%
76ers vs. Hornets
- Account under a day old+35
- $106K position, $100K or more+20
- 100% of recent volume in this event+15
- Sports market, scored lower
The account was opened under a day before it bought $105,844 of “76ers” at 64% across 2 trades. 100% of its recent trading volume is in this one event. Sports markets see many new accounts and big bets, so the score is reduced.
Account age: under a day · 2 trades of $10K+ in the scan
$106K
How we flag unusual activity
The radar is a rule-based screen. It does not know who anyone is. For each wallet that bought $10,000 or more of one outcome, it adds the points below to get a score from 0 to 100.
| Signal | Rule | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Account age | The wallet’s public Polymarket profile has a creation date. We compare it with the time of the trade: a day or less, up to 7 days, up to 30 days. | 35 / 28 / 12 |
| Position size | Dollars this wallet bought in this market inside the scan window, with trades of $10K or more added together: at least $25K, at least $100K. | 12 / 20 |
| Long-shot price | The average price paid per share: 25% or lower, 10% or lower. A win pays at least 4x or 10x the stake. | 12 / 18 |
| Concentration | At least 80% of the dollar volume in the wallet’s last 50 trades (either side) is in the same event. | 15 |
| News-driven market | Politics, world events, crypto, economy or company news, judged from keywords in the market title, where non-public information is plausible. | 15 |
Adjustments and cut-offs
- Only buys of $10K or more priced between 3% and 90% are scored. Sells mostly close positions, and paying 90 cents or more for a $1 payout leaves little to gain from private information.
- Sports markets keep 60% of their points. New accounts and big bets are routine on game days, so they rarely reach the list.
- A wallet with no fresh-account signal (older than 30 days, or no public profile) is capped at 50. Large long-shot bets from established traders are common.
- Scores stop at 100 and the list starts at 40: 40 to 59 is moderate, 60 to 74 elevated, 75 and up high. Telegram alerts, when enabled, start at 60.
Data and limits
- Trades come from Polymarket's public market data APIs: the latest 1,000 trades of $10K or more, the wallet's public profile (creation date) and its last 50 trades. The page refreshes about every three minutes.
- To keep requests bounded, account age is looked up for at most 60 wallets per refresh (the most promising first) and trade history for at most 24. Concentration means 80% or more of recent volume in one event.
- A profile's creation date is when the account was opened, not when it first traded, and one person can hold several wallets. The radar cannot see links between wallets.
- The topic is guessed from keywords in the market title, so some markets are misfiled. Trades under $10K are not scanned.
- There is no list of confirmed cases to test against, so we cannot say how often a flag is right. Treat the score as a way to sort, not a verdict.
Notable cases from the news
These are publicly reported cases and official actions, summarized from the sources linked under each one. Charges are allegations. They are here for context; the radar itself does not identify people.
April 23, 2026
A U.S. Army service member charged over bets on the Maduro operation
The CFTC and federal prosecutors in New York charged Gannon Ken Van Dyke, an active-duty soldier. The CFTC alleges he used nonpublic classified information about the planning of an operation to capture Nicolás Maduro to buy more than 436,000 “Yes” shares in Polymarket’s “Maduro Out by January 31, 2026?” contract between December 30, 2025 and January 2, 2026, for a profit above $404,000. The CFTC said it was the first time it had charged insider trading involving event contracts.
These are allegations in a civil complaint and a parallel criminal indictment; neither has been proven in court.
Sources: CFTC press release 9217-26, Debevoise analysis, April 27, 2026, DOJ (SDNY) press release
May 27, 2026
A Google engineer charged over Year in Search bets
The CFTC and federal prosecutors in New York charged Michele Spagnuolo, a Google software engineer. The CFTC alleges he used nonpublic information about the results of Google’s 2025 Year in Search list to trade at least 23 related Polymarket contracts between at least October and December 2025, with near-perfect accuracy, for roughly $1.2 million in profit.
These are allegations in a civil complaint and a criminal complaint; neither has been proven in court.
Sources: CFTC press release 9237-26, CBS News
May 17, 2026
60 Minutes and Bubblemaps on nine linked accounts and the Iran war
CBS News and 60 Minutes reported that the blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps had flagged nine connected Polymarket accounts that won more than $2.4 million, mostly on bets about U.S. military actions in the Iran war. Bubblemaps’ CEO said the accounts won more than 80 bets at a 98% win rate, many placed at low odds. In a statement to 60 Minutes, Polymarket said “insider trading is not welcome on Polymarket” and that when its systems identify suspicious activity it acts, including through referrals to law enforcement.
Bubblemaps’ conclusion is an analysis of on-chain behavior, not a legal finding. The accounts are anonymous and no charges against them were reported.
Sources: CBS News
May 13, 2026
The New York Times on dozens of bets that show signs of insider trading
Reporters Stuart A. Thompson and David Yaffe-Bellany published an examination of Polymarket bets headlined “Dozens of Polymarket Bets Show Signs of Insider Trading, The Times Finds”. It looked at long-shot bets that defied the odds, on topics from the war with Iran to crypto prices.
The Times described the bets as showing likely signs of insider trading, not as proven cases.
Sources: The New York Times (paywalled)
August 21, 2026
CNN: Polymarket referred dozens of possible military insider-trading cases to the DOJ
CNN reported, citing a Polymarket official, that the company had referred dozens of accounts showing possible military insider trading to the Justice Department. The referrals came before a watchdog report that flagged 152 accounts with about $8 million in profits on war markets.
The official said trading patterns alone do not prove wrongdoing, and CNN reported that the DOJ had not responded to its request for comment.
Sources: CNN
What Polymarket says about insider trading
Polymarket prohibits it in its Terms of Use and on its integrity page, which is also where to report it: email integrity@polymarket.com.
- What is prohibited
Polymarket’s integrity page says insider trading is strictly prohibited. It names three situations: trading on confidential information obtained in breach of a duty of trust, trading on a tip from someone who owed that duty when you know they could not trade on it, and trading by people with authority to influence an event’s outcome (or anyone acting at their direction). Its examples include sports injuries, information covered by NDAs, and service members or contractors with confidential information about upcoming military operations.
Sources: Polymarket integrity page
- What the terms say
Section 4.2 of the Terms of Use (effective August 11, 2026) lists the same conduct as prohibited, along with manipulative trading, wash trading, spoofing and collusion. It says Polymarket may investigate suspected violations, terminate access and cooperate with law enforcement.
Sources: Polymarket Terms of Use
- The March 2026 rule update
On March 23, 2026, Polymarket updated its rules to ban trades based on improperly obtained private information or illegal tips, and bets by people in a position of authority or influence over an event’s outcome. CBS News reported that the rules apply to both its U.S. exchange and its offshore platform.
Sources: CBS News
- Surveillance and referrals, in the company’s words
Polymarket says every trade is recorded on-chain, that it uses real-time surveillance with outside surveillance partners, and that it has referred 90 or more accounts to law enforcement. It says it can ban wallets, pursue legal action or make referrals. These are the company’s own claims; we have not verified them independently.
Sources: Polymarket integrity page
- What DOJ and CFTC actions mean
In the April 2026 case the CFTC called its complaint the first time it had charged insider trading involving event contracts. The law firm Debevoise explains that both agencies treat at least certain event contracts as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, so its anti-fraud provisions apply, and that the same theories could reach confidential corporate information such as M&A, clinical results or litigation outcomes.
Sources: CFTC press release 9217-26, Debevoise analysis
Questions about Polymarket insider trading
A big bet is not unusual by itself. Every $10K+ trade is on the whale trades feed, and the top traders page shows who has a long record behind their size.
Many flags sit in the midterm markets: see the live 2026 midterm election odds or browse all live events. Curious who wins big the honest way? Try the biggest Polymarket wins or the copy-trading simulator.
New here? Read how to read whale trades or how to make your first trade.
- Is insider trading on Polymarket illegal?
- Polymarket’s terms prohibit trading on confidential information obtained in breach of a duty of trust, and U.S. authorities have brought cases over it. In April and May 2026 the DOJ and CFTC filed criminal and civil actions over Polymarket trades, treating at least certain event contracts as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. Those charges are allegations until proven in court, and this page is not legal advice.
- How can you spot suspicious bets on Polymarket?
- Look for several signs at once: a new account, a large position, a low price (a long shot), most of the wallet’s trading in one market, and a topic where private information is plausible, such as politics or world events. Each one is common among ordinary traders. The radar checks all five and shows the points each adds.
- Does a flag mean the trader is an insider?
- No. A flag means the trade matches a pattern that appears in publicly reported cases. Most flags have innocent explanations: an experienced trader using a new wallet, someone acting on a strong opinion, a hedge against another position. WhaleSays does not accuse anyone, and a flag is not evidence.
- What is a fresh wallet on Polymarket?
- A fresh wallet is an account that was created recently. We read the creation date from the wallet’s public Polymarket profile and compare it with the time of the trade. Creation date is not the same as first-trade date, and an experienced trader can open a new wallet at any time, so account age is a hint, not an identity.
- How does the radar work, and how often does it update?
- It reads the latest 1,000 Polymarket trades of $10,000 or more (up to the last 24 hours), keeps the buys priced between 3% and 90%, looks up the account age of up to 60 wallets and the recent trading of up to 24, and scores each position from 0 to 100. The page refreshes about every three minutes.
- How do I report suspicious trading on Polymarket?
- Polymarket’s integrity page asks people to report suspected manipulative or prohibited trading by email to integrity@polymarket.com. Include the market, the wallet address and what looks wrong. WhaleSays is independent of Polymarket and cannot investigate, ban or penalize anyone.
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