Polymarket copy trading: what $100 would have made
Copying forgotmydinner over the last 30 days would have turned $100 into $161. That was the best of 24 top traders we could measure. The middle one would have ended with $116, and 1 of 24 would have lost money.
It is hindsight. These traders are on the list because they already ranked among the most profitable on Polymarket, so a follower starting today should expect less. Sort the table by worst to see who lost.
Best, last 30 days
$100 → $161
forgotmydinner (+61%)
Middle trader, last 30 days
$100 → $116
median of 24 traders (+16%)
Worst, last 30 days
$100 → $91
S-Works (−9%)
Over 90 days the middle trader of 25 would have ended with $112, and 1 would have lost money.
· Data from the Polymarket Data API · Past results do not predict future ones.
Copy trading simulator
Pick a period and an amount to see what each trader's positions would have turned it into. Winners and losers are both here. Each trader needs at least 10 positions and $1,000 of capital in the period to get a number.
24 traders with a result for the last 30 days. Ranked by copy return. Each figure is what $100 would be worth now.
- 1forgotmydinner$161+61%+61%Positions 886In profit 25%Best +$552KWorst −$11K
- 2Dragon-Evolution$134+34%+34%Positions 22In profit 77%Best +$152KWorst −$149K
- 3joseph00677$134+34%+34%Positions 23In profit 43%Best +$1.6MWorst −$1.6M
- 4Jsram$130+30%+30%Positions 56In profit 61%Best +$224KWorst −$111K
- 50xc9bf…81c0$127+27%+27%Positions 537In profit 57%Best +$55KWorst −$36K
- 6ArielFilipino$125+25%+25%Positions 160In profit 64%Best +$49KWorst −$38K
- 7justwins$122+22%+22%Positions 94In profit 57%Best +$228KWorst −$127K
- 8theowalcott$120+20%+20%Positions 92In profit 54%Best +$192KWorst −$159K
- 9THEHIGHLIFE$120+20%+20%Positions 343In profit 52%Best +$124KWorst −$68K
- 10
drainedandpoor$118+18%+18%Positions 225In profit 51%Best +$45KWorst −$29K - 11gmpm2$118+18%+18%Positions 352In profit 53%Best +$511KWorst −$251K
- 12Tokor$116+16%+16%Positions 891In profit 61%Best +$23KWorst −$5,524
- 13flawfence$116+16%+16%Positions 92In profit 41%Best +$52KWorst −$7,982
- 14Diabolical-Prize$115+15%+15%Positions 111In profit 50%Best +$1.6MWorst −$1.1M
- 15juice-fruit$115+15%+15%Positions 87In profit 57%Best +$314KWorst −$163K
- 16monkeymashingkeyboard$113+13%+13%Positions 454In profit 53%Best +$153KWorst −$124K
- 17BreakTheBank$112+12%+12%Positions 595In profit 43%Best +$1.1MWorst −$669K
- 18anoin123$110+10%+10%Positions 394In profit 47%Best +$112KWorst −$29K
- 19getbipped$108+8%+8%Positions 207In profit 63%Best +$21KWorst −$19K
- 20Mooseborzoiii$106+6%+6%Positions 93In profit 51%Best +$1.3MWorst −$816K
- 21
paddaa$106+6%+6%Positions 304In profit 56%Best +$6,294Worst −$6,000 - 22googleplay$102+2%+2%Positions 98In profit 48%Best +$774KWorst −$945K
- 23jakepaulthegoat2008$101+1%+1%Positions 421In profit 57%Best +$477KWorst −$1.3M
- 24S-Works$91−9%−9%Positions 34In profit 65%Best +$117KWorst −$184K
Same entry prices as the trader, no fees, slippage or delay. Not advice. Click a name for the full profile, or “Copy this trader” to open it on Polymarket (affiliate link; signing up through it costs you nothing extra).
How we calculate this
Who. The top 50 traders on Polymarket's all-time profit board plus the top 50 this month, as on our leaderboard: 96 wallets, 96 of them read successfully.
What counts. Every position the wallet first bought inside the window, from the Polymarket Data API (see also the Polymarket docs). Closed and settled positions use their final profit or loss. Positions still open use today's price. We include settled positions the trader never redeemed, because Polymarket lists a lost position nobody redeemed as open, and leaving them out would hide a large part of the losses.
Formula. Copy return = total profit and loss ÷ total capital put in, where capital is shares bought × average buy price. That is the return of copying every position in proportion to the trader's own stake. $100 copied = 100 × (1 + copy return). In profit = share of positions with a profit at today's price. Best win and worst loss are single positions.
Left out. Positions with no entry date or under $1 of capital. Wallets that trade so often we could not read every position in the window: 24 for 30 days, 27 for 90 days. Wallets below the 10-position or $1,000 minimum (many all-time leaders are no longer active): 48 for 30 days, 44 for 90 days.
What the numbers assume
- You buy at the same price as the trader. In practice you see a trade after it happens and may pay more.
- No trading fees, slippage or delay are modeled. Polymarket's profit figure for each position is used as reported.
- Hindsight: the pool is made of traders who already ranked high, so the results flatter what a new follower would earn.
- Open positions are valued at today's price and can still move. Short, fast markets settle sooner than long ones.
- Several wallets can belong to one person, and a few big positions can dominate a trader's return.
- Past performance does not predict future results. This is not financial advice.
How to copy trade on Polymarket
There is no single right way, and every route carries risk. These are the three most common, described without a favorite.
Follow a profile by hand
Every Polymarket account is public. Open a trader's profile from their WhaleSays page, look at what they hold and what they bought recently, and place the same trade yourself if you agree with it. You decide the size and the timing, and you stay in control of your own money.
Watch for big trades
Our live whale feed lists recent trades of $10,000 or more, refreshed about once a minute (near-certain cash-outs above 97¢ or below 3¢ are left out). Click a trader's name to see whether they have a record worth following before you act on a single trade.
Third-party bots and tools
Telegram bots, browser tools, open-source scripts and paid services claim to mirror a wallet automatically. WhaleSays does not run, test or endorse any of them, and the results on this page do not apply to them. They add fees and delay, and they need some kind of access to your funds.
Risks to know before you copy anyone
- You are always late. By the time you see a trade, the price may have moved against you.
- Never share your seed phrase or private key with a bot, a website or a person. No legitimate tool needs it.
- Be wary of paid “signals” and promises of steady returns. Nobody can guarantee a result.
- A trader who is up overall can still lose on the trades you copy, and some of the traders above lost money in the period.
- Polymarket is not available everywhere. Check where it is available and read our note on responsible trading.
Copy trading questions
Want to see who the biggest winners are? Read the biggest Polymarket wins of all time, browse the top trader leaderboard or watch live whale trades.
Curious about suspiciously well-timed bets? See our insider trading radar. New to Polymarket? Start with how to start trading.
- What is copy trading on Polymarket?
- It means placing the same trades as another trader, either by watching their public profile and trading by hand or by using a tool that mirrors their wallet. WhaleSays does not place trades for you. This page measures what mirroring would have returned in the past.
- How do you work out what $100 would have become?
- For each trader we take every position they opened in the window and add up the profit and the capital they put in. The copy return is the total profit divided by the total capital, and $100 copied is 100 × (1 + that return). Positions that are still open are valued at today's price. The full method is in the box above.
- Is this what I would really have made?
- No, it is an upper bound. You would have seen each trade after it happened, so the price may already have moved. Fees and slippage are not modeled. And these traders are on our list because they already did well, so any list like this flatters the future.
- Do most Polymarket traders make money?
- No. A November 2024 report in Decrypt, based on Dune dashboards, found that 86% of accounts had a negative realized profit and loss. Top-of-the-leaderboard traders are the exception, which is why copying them looks attractive and why the table above includes the ones who lost money.
- Who are the best Polymarket traders to copy?
- There is no safe answer. Look for a large number of positions rather than a few lucky ones, a result that holds across both periods, and a style you understand. The most consistent sort ranks by the share of positions in profit, but a high win rate can hide a few huge losses. Open a trader's profile page before you follow anyone.
- Are copy trading bots on Polymarket safe?
- Treat them with caution. Anything that asks for your seed phrase or private key is a red flag, and you should never share either. Check who built a tool, read its code if it is open source, start with an amount you can afford to lose, and remember that a bot copies after the fact, so it pays worse prices than the trader did.
Want to try it yourself?
Opening a Polymarket account takes a few minutes. WhaleSays is independent; signing up through our links costs you nothing extra. Trading involves risk and you can lose what you put in.
Sources: the Polymarket Data API v2 for positions and leaderboards, and Decrypt's report of November 7, 2024 on the share of losing Polymarket accounts. WhaleSays is not affiliated with Polymarket and none of this is financial advice.