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2028 presidential election odds

Polymarket traders give JD Vance a 20% chance of winning the 2028 US presidential election (−0.1 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 13%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 25
JD VanceAlexandria Ocasio-CortezGavin NewsomJon Ossoff

All 54 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Show all 54 outcomes

Whale trades in this market

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How this market resolves

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

What this market asks

Which person will win the 2028 US presidential election? Polymarket lists each possible winner as its own market. Every candidate's price is the market's implied probability that they win, so a 10-cent share means roughly a 10% chance. Anyone can be listed, not just declared candidates, which is why the list is long and the tail is full of long shots.

Because it covers the whole field, this is the broadest 2028 market on Polymarket. If you care about a single party's primary instead, the Democratic and Republican nominee markets are narrower and usually move first.

How it resolves and key dates

The election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 7, 2028. A candidate's market resolves to Yes when the person wins that election. Polymarket uses three sources for the call: the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC. The market resolves once all three have called the race for the same candidate. If they have not agreed by Inauguration Day, January 20, 2029, it resolves to whoever is inaugurated.

Winning means taking a majority of the 538 electoral votes, so 270 or more. The popular vote does not decide the market.

What moves these odds

Early on, prices react to who signals a run, who builds a donor and endorsement network, and how each party's field takes shape. As the primaries approach, polling inside each party and in swing states matters more. The president's approval rating, economic news and the results of the midterm elections tend to shift the party-level odds, and with them every candidate on that side.

A single viral moment can move a long shot a few points in a day. Large trades also leave a footprint, which is why the whale trades below are worth a look.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

When is the 2028 US presidential election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 7, 2028. The winner is inaugurated on January 20, 2029.
How does Polymarket decide who won the 2028 election?
The market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate. If they have not agreed by Inauguration Day (January 20, 2029), it resolves to the person who is inaugurated.
Are election odds the same as polls?
No. Polls ask voters what they plan to do. Market odds are prices set by traders with money at stake, so they combine polls with news, fundraising and trader judgement. Both can be wrong.
Can I bet on someone who has not announced a run?
Yes. Polymarket lists many people who have not declared. Their prices show how likely traders think a run and a win are, which is usually very low.
Who is the favorite in Presidential Election Winner 2028?
JD Vance is the favorite at 20%, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 13% and Gavin Newsom at 11%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket traders give JD Vance a 20% chance of winning the 2028 US presidential election, which is decimal odds of 4.89 (American +389): $1 staked on JD Vance returns about $4.89 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 0.1 points.

Related odds

Also see 2028 Democratic nominee odds and 2028 Republican nominee odds.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

  • Democratic Party92%
  • Republican Party9%

$22M traded · $780K in 24h

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

  • J.D. Vance40%
  • Marco Rubio18%
  • Ron DeSantis3%

$717M traded · $495K in 24h

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

  • Democrats Sweep66%
  • R Senate, D House26%
  • Republicans Sweep8%

$37M traded · $438K in 24h