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Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round odds

The highest-priced market in “Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round” is Marine Le Pen at 89% (−1.0 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 43%. Each market resolves on its own, so these prices do not have to add up to 100%.

Market ends:

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Back your pick

Choose an outcome and a stake to see what it would return if it wins.

Your pick

If “Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election” resolves Yes, $20 returns about $22.47.

Price per share
89¢
Implied chance
89%
Shares
22.47
Payout if it wins
$22.47
Profit if it wins
+$2.47
Odds
1.12 · −809

If it loses, the stake is lost. Each share costs the price shown and pays $1 if the outcome wins.

Back Marine Le Pen on Polymarket

Affiliate link · 18+ · prices move; you can lose your stake · not financial advice

Polymarket’s taker fee is not included (see our guide to Polymarket fees). Prices are from the last update, 12:56 UTC, 2 Nov 2026, and may have moved since.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Oct 2Nov 2
Marine Le PenJean-Luc MélenchonÉdouard PhilippeDavid Lisnard

All 36 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Show all 36 outcomes

Long shots that pay the most

The 3 outcomes priced between 2¢ and 15¢ that would pay the most for a $20 stake. Long shots rarely win, and the price already says how rarely: 5¢ is a market-implied chance of about 5%. Most stakes at these prices end up lost.

Payout is before fees and assumes the price shown. How Polymarket fees work.

Where this market stands

“Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round” is a Polymarket event with 36 open outcomes. Marine Le Pen has the highest price at 89%, ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 43%. Marine Le Pen is down 1.0 points over the last 24 hours and up 2.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $513K through the event so far, including $3,485 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on April 19, 2027.

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The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
Polymarket currently prices Yes at 89% in this market, which is decimal odds of 1.12 (American −809): $1 staked on Yes returns about $1.12 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 1.0 points.

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