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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot odds

The highest-priced market in “2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot” is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 93% (−0.4 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Nathalie Arthaud at 87%. Each market resolves on its own, so these prices do not have to add up to 100%.

Market ends:

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Back your pick

Choose an outcome and a stake to see what it would return if it wins.

Your pick

If “Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election” resolves Yes, $20 returns about $21.60.

Price per share
92.6¢
Implied chance
93%
Shares
21.60
Payout if it wins
$21.60
Profit if it wins
+$1.60
Odds
1.08 · −1251

If it loses, the stake is lost. Each share costs the price shown and pays $1 if the outcome wins.

Back Jean-Luc Mélenchon on Polymarket

Affiliate link · 18+ · prices move; you can lose your stake · not financial advice

Polymarket’s taker fee is not included (see our guide to Polymarket fees). Prices are from the last update, 13:04 UTC, 2 Nov 2026, and may have moved since.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Oct 2Nov 2
Jean-Luc MélenchonNathalie ArthaudMarine Le PenRaphaël Glucksmann

All 46 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Show all 46 outcomes

Long shots that pay the most

The 3 outcomes priced between 2¢ and 15¢ that would pay the most for a $20 stake. Long shots rarely win, and the price already says how rarely: 5¢ is a market-implied chance of about 5%. Most stakes at these prices end up lost.

Payout is before fees and assumes the price shown. How Polymarket fees work.

Where this market stands

“2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot” is a Polymarket event with 46 open outcomes. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has the highest price at 93%, ahead of Nathalie Arthaud at 87%. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is down 0.4 points over the last 24 hours and up 0.3 points over the past week. Traders have put $631K through the event so far, including $1,396 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on July 1, 2027.

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The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Polymarket currently prices Yes at 93% in this market, which is decimal odds of 1.08 (American −1251): $1 staked on Yes returns about $1.08 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 0.4 points.

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