2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête odds
Polymarket traders put the chance of Knafo at 18% and Zemmour at 83% for “2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête” (Knafo +4.5 pts in the last 24 hours).
Market ends:
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
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Choose an outcome and a stake to see what it would return if it wins.
Your pick
If “2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête” resolves Zemmour, $20 returns about $24.24.
- Price per share
- 82.5¢
- Implied chance
- 83%
- Shares
- 24.24
- Payout if it wins
- $24.24
- Profit if it wins
- +$4.24
- Odds
- 1.21 · −471
If it loses, the stake is lost. Each share costs the price shown and pays $1 if the outcome wins.
Affiliate link · 18+ · prices move; you can lose your stake · not financial advice
Polymarket’s taker fee is not included (see our guide to Polymarket fees). Prices are from the last update, 12:58 UTC, 2 Nov 2026, and may have moved since.
Chance of Knafo over the last 30 days
Price of a Knafo share.
Knafo and Zemmour odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- Knafo18%18%24h +4.5 ptsOdds 5.71US +471Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Zemmour83%83%24h −4.5 ptsOdds 1.21US −471Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête” is a Polymarket market with two outcomes. Knafo is priced at 18% and Zemmour at 83%; Knafo is up 4.5 points over the last 24 hours and down 2.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $4,419 through the market so far, including $56 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on April 18, 2027.
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How this market resolves
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.
This market will resolve according to which of Éric Zemmour and Sarah Knafo officially runs as a candidate representing Reconquête in the 2027 French presidential election. If Éric Zemmour runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve to “Zemmour”. If Sarah Knafo runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve to “Knafo”. If neither runs as the Reconquête candidate, this market will resolve 50-50.
To count for resolution, the individual must be included on the official candidate list for the first round published by the French Constitutional Council, and must be the presidential candidate designated or endorsed by Reconquête. If Reconquête does not field a presidential candidate, or fields a candidate other than Éric Zemmour or Sarah Knafo, this market will resolve 50-50.
If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council and official information from Reconquête; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
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- 2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête?
- Polymarket currently prices Knafo at 18% (decimal odds 5.71, American +471) and Zemmour at 83% (decimal odds 1.21, American −471). Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome.
- When does this market close?
- The listed end date is April 18, 2027. Read the resolution rules on this page to see what counts and who decides.
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