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Next Swedish prime minister odds

Polymarket traders give Magdalena Andersson a 69% chance of becoming the next prime minister of Sweden (−1.5 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Ulf Kristersson at 27%.

Market ends:

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Choose an outcome and a stake to see what it would return if it wins.

Your pick

If Magdalena Andersson wins “Next Prime Minister of Sweden”, $20 returns about $28.99.

Price per share
69¢
Implied chance
69%
Shares
28.99
Payout if it wins
$28.99
Profit if it wins
+$8.99
Odds
1.45 · −223

If it loses, the stake is lost. Each share costs the price shown and pays $1 if the outcome wins.

Back Magdalena Andersson on Polymarket

Affiliate link · 18+ · prices move; you can lose your stake · not financial advice

Polymarket’s taker fee is not included (see our guide to Polymarket fees). Prices are from the last update, 09:23 UTC, 2 Nov 2026, and may have moved since.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Oct 2Nov 2
Magdalena AnderssonUlf KristerssonEbba BuschElisabeth Thand Ringqvist

All 10 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Long shots that pay the most

The outcome priced between 2¢ and 15¢ that would pay the most for a $20 stake. Long shots rarely win, and the price already says how rarely: 5¢ is a market-implied chance of about 5%. Most stakes at these prices end up lost.

Payout is before fees and assumes the price shown. How Polymarket fees work.

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How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

What this market asks

Who will be Sweden's next prime minister after the September 13, 2026 parliamentary election? Each person has a Yes/No market, and the price is the market's implied probability that they are officially appointed and take office. Only the person who actually assumes office counts. An interim or caretaker prime minister does not, which matters because Ulf Kristersson's government has been serving in a caretaker role since he submitted his resignation on September 17, 2026.

How it resolves and key dates

The market resolves to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as prime minister after the election, using official information from the Government of Sweden and, where needed, a consensus of credible reporting. If nobody has assumed office by June 30, 2027 (11:59 PM ET), it resolves to Other.

Sweden chooses its prime minister in a way that surprises many readers. The Speaker of the Riksdag proposes a candidate, and the Riksdag votes. The candidate is rejected only if a majority of the 349 members, at least 175, vote against. Abstaining therefore helps a candidate. If a proposal is rejected, the Speaker tries again. If four proposals are rejected, an extraordinary election must be held within three months.

The 2026 election was extremely close: the centre-left opposition bloc won 176 seats and the Tidö bloc that backed Kristersson's government won 173, so no bloc had a majority of its own. The Speaker's first proposal, Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson, was rejected on October 15, 2026 by 248 votes to 99. A second vote, on Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist, was scheduled for November 3, 2026. Each rejection counts toward the limit of four, and as of November 2, 2026 no new government had taken office.

What moves these odds

Everything turns on parliamentary arithmetic. Prices follow the Speaker's choice of who to propose, which parties say they will vote against or abstain, and whether the Centre Party or the Left Party will accept a particular coalition. A single announcement from a small party can move the favorite by many points in a day. Earlier Swedish formations took more than a month in 2022 and more than four months in 2018, so a quick result is not guaranteed.

The possibility of a snap election also matters, because it would push the resolution date out and could change the field of candidates.

How to back a pick

On Polymarket you buy shares of the person you pick. Each share pays $1 if they become prime minister and nothing if they do not, so a share bought at 25 cents turns $20 into $80 if the pick wins (before any fees) and into $0 if it does not. Prices move quickly around votes, you can sell before the result, and you can lose your whole stake. This is information, not financial advice.

More markets on this topic

Other Polymarket markets about next Swedish prime minister odds, with the most likely outcome in each right now.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

When was the 2026 Swedish election?
Sweden held its parliamentary election on September 13, 2026. The centre-left opposition bloc won 176 of the 349 seats and the Tidö bloc 173.
How is the Swedish prime minister chosen?
The Speaker of the Riksdag proposes a candidate, and the Riksdag votes. The candidate is rejected only if at least 175 of the 349 members vote against. If four proposals are rejected, an extraordinary election must be held within three months.
Does a caretaker prime minister count in this market?
No. The market needs the individual who is officially appointed and assumes office after the election. An interim or caretaker prime minister does not count. If nobody has assumed office by June 30, 2027 (11:59 PM ET), it resolves to Other.
How long does government formation take in Sweden?
It varies. After the 2022 election it took more than a month, and after the 2018 election more than four months.
Is there a separate market on which parties form the government?
Yes. Polymarket also asks which coalition of parties forms the next Swedish government. It is listed under More markets on this page.
Who is the favorite in Next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Magdalena Andersson is the favorite at 69%, followed by Ulf Kristersson at 27% and Ebba Busch at 2%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Polymarket traders give Magdalena Andersson a 69% chance of becoming the next prime minister of Sweden, which is decimal odds of 1.45 (American −223): $1 staked on Magdalena Andersson returns about $1.45 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 1.5 points.

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