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Highest grossing movie 2026 odds

Polymarket traders give Spider-Man: Brand New Day a 95% chance of being the highest grossing movie of 2026 (+4.0 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Avengers: Doomsday at 5%.

Calendar year ends:

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Back your pick

Choose an outcome and a stake to see what it would return if it wins.

Your pick

If Spider-Man: Brand New Day wins “Highest grossing movie in 2026”, $20 returns about $21.05.

Price per share
95¢
Implied chance
95%
Shares
21.05
Payout if it wins
$21.05
Profit if it wins
+$1.05
Odds
1.05 · −1900

If it loses, the stake is lost. Each share costs the price shown and pays $1 if the outcome wins.

Back Spider-Man: Brand New Day on Polymarket

Affiliate link · 18+ · prices move; you can lose your stake · not financial advice

Polymarket’s taker fee is not included (see our guide to Polymarket fees). Prices are from the last update, 09:23 UTC, 2 Nov 2026, and may have moved since.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Oct 2Nov 2
Spider-Man: Brand New DayAvengers: DoomsdayWicked: For GoodWuthering Heights

All 14 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Long shots that pay the most

The outcome priced between 2¢ and 15¢ that would pay the most for a $20 stake. Long shots rarely win, and the price already says how rarely: 5¢ is a market-implied chance of about 5%. Most stakes at these prices end up lost.

Payout is before fees and assumes the price shown. How Polymarket fees work.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available.

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

What this market asks

Which film will earn the most at the box office in 2026? Each listed film has a Yes/No market, and its price is the market's implied probability that it ends the year on top. If you are looking for a 2026 box office prediction or the biggest movie of 2026, this market is where traders put money on it. One catch: it counts domestic grosses within the calendar year, not worldwide totals.

How it resolves and key dates

The market resolves to the film with the highest figure in the Gross column of Box Office Mojo's 2026 calendar-gross chart, once data for December 31 is available. Only money earned in 2026 counts, so a film released in late 2025 contributes just its 2026 receipts, and a December 2026 release counts only up to year end. An exact tie goes to the title that comes first alphabetically. If no final data is available by January 7, 2027 (11:59 PM ET), Polymarket picks another credible source.

The biggest-opening-weekend market, listed under more markets, is a different question. It uses The Numbers' final three-day domestic weekend figures, so the film with the best opening is not always the year's top earner.

What moves these odds

Release date comes first: a film that opens in January has a full year to earn, while a holiday release has less time inside the calendar year. After that, opening weekends, reviews and word of mouth decide how long a film keeps earning, which is why prices often shift most on the Monday after a big opening.

Competing releases, changes to release schedules and the box office's seasonal pattern matter too. As the year goes on, films that have finished their run lock in a total, and the market narrows to the few that can still catch the leader.

How to back a pick

You buy shares of the film you expect to finish first. Each share pays $1 if it does and nothing if it does not. As an illustration, $20 at a price of 10 cents buys 200 shares, which return $200 if it wins, before any fees, and $0 if it does not. Prices keep moving as grosses come in and you can lose your whole stake. This is not financial advice.

More markets on this topic

Other Polymarket markets about highest grossing movie 2026 odds, with the most likely outcome in each right now.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Does this market use worldwide or domestic box office?
Domestic. It uses the Gross column of Box Office Mojo's 2026 calendar-gross chart, and only grosses earned in 2026 count.
Does a film released in 2025 count?
Only for what it earns in 2026. The market uses calendar-year grosses, so a film that opened in late 2025 counts just its 2026 receipts.
When does the market resolve?
Once Box Office Mojo's data for December 31, 2026 is available. If there is no final data by January 7, 2027 (11:59 PM ET), another credible source is chosen.
What happens in a tie?
An exact tie in gross goes to the film whose title comes first alphabetically.
Is this the same as the biggest opening weekend market?
No. That market uses The Numbers' final three-day domestic opening weekend figure for the year. You can find it under more markets on this page.
Who is the favorite in Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day is the favorite at 95%, followed by Avengers: Doomsday at 5% and Wicked: For Good at <0.1%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Polymarket traders give Spider-Man: Brand New Day a 95% chance of being the highest grossing movie of 2026, which is decimal odds of 1.05 (American −1900): $1 staked on Spider-Man: Brand New Day returns about $1.05 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 4.0 points.

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Also see Oscars 2027 best picture odds and next James Bond actor odds and top Spotify artist 2026 odds.

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