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Worse-Scenario

0x75d1…7a5f · Joined February 9, 2026

#1,941 all time#661,713 this monthView on Polymarket

Worse-Scenario has made $100K in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #1,941 all time by profit, with 3.3M shares traded.

Latest trade seen: Oct 5, 2026.

All-time realized profit
+$100K
All-time volume (shares)
3.3M
Portfolio value
$3,510
Profit this month
−$1,049
Win rate (last 199 closed)
53%

How Worse-Scenario has traded

Across the 199 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 106 (53%) ended in profit and 93 in a loss, for −$489 in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 49%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. 81 of the 199 are about politics and elections, judging by keywords in the market titles. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $3,429 together, the biggest is “Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?” (No) at 40% of that value.

Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.

Biggest wins

Closed positions with the highest realized profit.

  • US forces enter Iran by March 31?

    No · entry 66% · closed Apr 5, 2026

    +$18K

  • Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays

    Toronto Blue Jays · entry 53% · closed Mar 28, 2026

    +$9,298

  • Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

    No · entry 49% · closed Oct 5, 2026

    +$7,827

  • Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians

    Cleveland Guardians · entry 51% · closed Apr 8, 2026

    +$7,350

  • Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

    Yes · entry 12% · closed May 9, 2026

    +$6,760

  • Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

    No · entry 0.2% · closed Apr 25, 2026

    +$6,755

  • US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

    No · entry 36% · closed Apr 29, 2026

    +$6,485

  • US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

    No · entry 80% · closed May 1, 2026

    +$5,171

  • Will Bryson DeChambeau finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Augusta National Invitational?

    No · entry 61% · closed Apr 11, 2026

    +$5,138

  • Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals

    Milwaukee Brewers · entry 46% · closed Apr 5, 2026

    +$4,927

Biggest losses

Closed positions with the largest realized loss.

  • US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

    No · entry 63% · closed Apr 8, 2026

    −$27K

  • Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?

    No · entry 78% · closed Apr 12, 2026

    −$12K

  • US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

    No · entry 30% · closed Apr 8, 2026

    −$10K

  • Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

    No · entry 80% · closed May 9, 2026

    −$6,797

  • Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

    Yes · entry 50% · closed May 1, 2026

    −$6,074

  • US forces enter Iran by December 31?

    Yes · entry 77% · closed Mar 30, 2026

    −$5,007

  • Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

    No · entry 86% · closed Jul 1, 2026

    −$3,614

  • Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by March 31?

    No · entry 77% · closed Mar 6, 2026

    −$3,493

  • Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?

    Yes · entry 81% · closed Aug 1, 2026

    −$3,172

  • US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

    Yes · entry 41% · closed Apr 23, 2026

    −$3,085

Open positions

The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.

Recent trades

Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.

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