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Oscars 2027 best picture odds

Polymarket traders give The Odyssey a 56% chance of winning Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards (+1.5 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of You Can See Everything at 20%.

Ceremony:

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Choose an outcome and a stake to see what it would return if it wins.

Your pick

If The Odyssey wins “Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner”, $20 returns about $35.71.

Price per share
56¢
Implied chance
56%
Shares
35.71
Payout if it wins
$35.71
Profit if it wins
+$15.71
Odds
1.79 · −127

If it loses, the stake is lost. Each share costs the price shown and pays $1 if the outcome wins.

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Polymarket’s taker fee is not included (see our guide to Polymarket fees). Prices are from the last update, 09:23 UTC, 2 Nov 2026, and may have moved since.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Oct 2Nov 2
The OdysseyYou Can See EverythingLa Bola NegraDune: Part Three

All 27 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Show all 27 outcomes

Long shots that pay the most

The 3 outcomes priced between 2¢ and 15¢ that would pay the most for a $20 stake. Long shots rarely win, and the price already says how rarely: 5¢ is a market-implied chance of about 5%. Most stakes at these prices end up lost.

Payout is before fees and assumes the price shown. How Polymarket fees work.

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How this market resolves

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

What this market asks

Who will win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, the Oscars held in 2027 for films from the 2026 eligibility year? Each listed film has its own Yes/No market, and its price is the market's implied probability that it wins. These are the Oscar predictions 2027 traders are putting money behind, and unlike a pundit's ranking they move with every trade.

The nominees are not announced until January 2027, so for now the list is a field of expected contenders. A film's price therefore blends two chances: that it is nominated, and that it then wins.

How it resolves and key dates

A film's market resolves to Yes if it wins the Academy Award for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards. If a film is not among the official Best Picture nominees, its market resolves to No as soon as the nominations are announced. In a tie, the nominated film whose listed title comes first alphabetically wins the market. If no winner is declared by June 30, 2027 (11:59 PM ET), it resolves to Other. The source is official information from the Academy (AMPAS) and the live broadcast, with credible reporting as a backup.

According to the Academy's April 2026 announcement, nominations are scheduled for Thursday, January 21, 2027 and the ceremony for Sunday, March 14, 2027, at the Dolby Theatre, broadcast live on ABC. Final voting runs from February 25 to March 4, 2027. The Academy says all dates are subject to change.

What moves these odds

Before nominations, prices follow festival reviews, release dates and awards-season buzz. After them, the precursor awards matter most: guild and critics' prizes are the first real signals of which film Academy members favor. The number of nominations a film collects is another sign of breadth of support.

Best Picture is voted on with a ranked ballot, so a film that many voters place near the top can beat a divisive one that wins the most first-place votes. Late controversies, studio campaigns and a surprise sweep at an earlier ceremony can each move the board in a day.

How to back a pick

You buy shares of the film you think will win. Each share pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it does not. As an illustration, $20 at a price of 25 cents buys 80 shares, which return $80 if the film wins, before any fees, and $0 if it does not. Prices change until the winner is announced, and you can lose your whole stake. This is information, not financial advice.

More markets on this topic

Other Polymarket markets about Oscars 2027 best picture odds, with the most likely outcome in each right now.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

When are the 99th Academy Awards?
The Academy has scheduled the ceremony for Sunday, March 14, 2027, live on ABC from the Dolby Theatre. Nominations are scheduled for Thursday, January 21, 2027. The Academy notes that all dates are subject to change.
What happens to a film's market if it is not nominated?
It resolves to No immediately when the nominees are announced. Films that miss out drop to zero and their share of the probability moves to the nominees.
How does Polymarket decide the Best Picture market?
By the film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture, according to official Academy (AMPAS) information and the live ceremony. A tie goes to the nominated film whose listed title comes first alphabetically, and if no winner is declared by June 30, 2027 (11:59 PM ET) the market resolves to Other.
Can I bet on the Oscars before the nominations are out?
Yes. The market is open now and covers expected contenders. Prices already include the chance that a film is not nominated, and they update the moment the Academy reveals the nominees.
Are there other Oscars markets?
Yes. The best actor, best actress and most-nominations markets are listed under more markets on this page, and each has its own live prices.
Who is the favorite in Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner?
The Odyssey is the favorite at 56%, followed by You Can See Everything at 20% and La Bola Negra at 13%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
Polymarket traders give The Odyssey a 56% chance of winning Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, which is decimal odds of 1.79 (American −127): $1 staked on The Odyssey returns about $1.79 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 1.5 points.

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