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Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026? Live odds

Polymarket traders make Avengers: Doomsday the favorite for “Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026” at 51% (−5.5 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 49%.

Market ends:

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Back your pick

Choose an outcome and a stake to see what it would return if it wins.

Your pick

If Avengers: Doomsday wins “Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026”, $20 returns about $39.60.

Price per share
50.5¢
Implied chance
51%
Shares
39.60
Payout if it wins
$39.60
Profit if it wins
+$19.60
Odds
1.98 · −102

If it loses, the stake is lost. Each share costs the price shown and pays $1 if the outcome wins.

Back Avengers: Doomsday on Polymarket

Affiliate link · 18+ · prices move; you can lose your stake · not financial advice

Polymarket’s taker fee is not included (see our guide to Polymarket fees). Prices are from the last update, 12:43 UTC, 2 Nov 2026, and may have moved since.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Oct 2Nov 2
Avengers: DoomsdaySpider-Man: Brand New DayThe Hunger Games: Sunrise on the ReapingDune: Messiah

All 4 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026” is a Polymarket event with 4 open outcomes. Avengers: Doomsday leads at 51%, ahead of Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 49%. Avengers: Doomsday is down 5.5 points over the last 24 hours and down 12 points over the past week. Traders have put $2.6M through the event so far, including $4,350 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on February 1, 2027.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.

If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Who is the favorite in Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Avengers: Doomsday is the favorite at 51%, followed by Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 49% and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping at <0.1%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Polymarket traders give Avengers: Doomsday a 51% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.98 (American −102): $1 staked on Avengers: Doomsday returns about $1.98 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 5.5 points.

Related odds

Highest grossing movie in 2026?

  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day95%
  • Avengers: Doomsday5%
  • Wicked: For Good<0.1%

$18M traded · $47K in 24h

Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?

  • Avengers: Doomsday55%
  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day45%
  • The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping<0.1%

$321K traded · $5,996 in 24h

Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?

  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day53%
  • Avengers: Doomsday48%
  • Dune: Messiah0.1%

$218K traded · $4,193 in 24h