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Next James Bond actor odds

Polymarket traders give Jack Lowden a 42% chance of being announced as the next James Bond (−0.7 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Callum Turner at 29%.

Announcement deadline:

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Back your pick

Choose an outcome and a stake to see what it would return if it wins.

Your pick

If Jack Lowden wins “Next James Bond actor”, $20 returns about $47.90.

Price per share
41.75¢
Implied chance
42%
Shares
47.90
Payout if it wins
$47.90
Profit if it wins
+$27.90
Odds
2.40 · +140

If it loses, the stake is lost. Each share costs the price shown and pays $1 if the outcome wins.

Back Jack Lowden on Polymarket

Affiliate link · 18+ · prices move; you can lose your stake · not financial advice

Polymarket’s taker fee is not included (see our guide to Polymarket fees). Prices are from the last update, 09:23 UTC, 2 Nov 2026, and may have moved since.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Oct 2Nov 2
Jack LowdenCallum TurnerNo Bond chosenJosh O'Connor

All 25 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Show all 25 outcomes

Long shots that pay the most

The 2 outcomes priced between 2¢ and 15¢ that would pay the most for a $20 stake. Long shots rarely win, and the price already says how rarely: 5¢ is a market-implied chance of about 5%. Most stakes at these prices end up lost.

Payout is before fees and assumes the price shown. How Polymarket fees work.

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The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.

If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

What this market asks

Who will be the next James Bond? Each listed actor has a Yes/No market, and the price is the market's implied probability that Amazon MGM officially announces that actor as 007 by the end of 2026. It is a market on the announcement, not on filming or release. There is also a No Bond chosen outcome for the case that nobody is announced in time.

How it resolves and key dates

An actor's market resolves to Yes if they are officially announced as the next James Bond by December 31, 2026 (11:59 PM ET). It uses the first official announcement, even if the casting later changes. If no actor is announced in time, the market resolves to No Bond chosen. The main source is Amazon MGM Studios, with a consensus of credible reporting also allowed.

What is confirmed: Amazon MGM announced on June 25, 2025 that Denis Villeneuve will direct the next Bond film, with Amy Pascal and David Heyman producing. As of November 2, 2026, we have found no official casting announcement. Trade reports in August 2026 described a shortlist and screen tests, but they disagree on the names, so treat them as unconfirmed. In an interview with Deadline published that month, Pascal said the end of the year is a good bet for an announcement.

What moves these odds

Reports from trade outlets such as Deadline, Variety and The Hollywood Reporter move prices most, along with leaked screen-test lists and any statement from Amazon MGM. Because only one actor can be announced, a credible report about one name pulls down every other name.

Rumours are the main risk. Early reports have repeatedly proved wrong, and a price that spikes on a single unsourced story can fall back just as fast. The announcement slipping into 2027 would resolve the market to No Bond chosen, which is itself an outcome traders can buy.

How to back a pick

You buy shares of the actor you think will be announced. Each share pays $1 if they are, and nothing if they are not. As an illustration, $20 at a price of 20 cents buys 100 shares, which return $100 if that actor is announced, before any fees, and $0 if not. Prices can jump on a headline and you can lose your whole stake. This is not financial advice.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Who is directing the next James Bond film?
Denis Villeneuve. Amazon MGM Studios announced it on June 25, 2025, with Amy Pascal and David Heyman as producers.
Has the next James Bond been announced?
As of November 2, 2026, we have found no official announcement from Amazon MGM Studios. Reports of shortlists and screen tests are unconfirmed. This page shows the live prices, which move the moment news breaks.
How does Polymarket decide who is the next James Bond?
By the first official announcement of the next Bond actor by December 31, 2026 (11:59 PM ET), mainly from Amazon MGM Studios. Later changes do not matter. If nobody is announced by then, the market resolves to No Bond chosen.
Does the actor have to start filming for the market to resolve?
No. Only the official announcement counts. Production and release dates are irrelevant.
What does No Bond chosen mean?
It is the outcome that pays if no actor is officially announced as the next James Bond by December 31, 2026 (11:59 PM ET).
Who is the favorite in Next James Bond actor?
Jack Lowden is the favorite at 42%, followed by Callum Turner at 29% and No Bond chosen at 15%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?
Polymarket traders give Jack Lowden a 42% chance of being announced as the next James Bond, which is decimal odds of 2.40 (American +140): $1 staked on Jack Lowden returns about $2.40 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 0.7 points.

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