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Which party will win the House in 2026? Live odds

Polymarket traders make Democratic Party the favorite for “Which party will win the House in 2026” at 92% (unchanged in the last 24 hours), ahead of Republican Party at 9%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 2 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 25
Democratic PartyRepublican Party

All 2 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Which party will win the House in 2026” is a Polymarket event with 2 open outcomes. Democratic Party leads at 92%, ahead of Republican Party at 9%. Democratic Party is unchanged over the last 24 hours and up 1.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $22M through the event so far, including $783K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election.

A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.

The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.

All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.

Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.

House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Who is the favorite in Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party is the favorite at 92%, followed by Republican Party at 9%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Polymarket traders give Democratic Party a 92% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.09 (American −1076): $1 staked on Democratic Party returns about $1.09 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved by less than 0.1 points.

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