GollumGekko has made $281K in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #743 all time by profit, with 33M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 25, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$281K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 33M
- Portfolio value
- $259K
- Profit this month
- +$5,001
- Win rate (last 198 closed)
- 73%
How GollumGekko has traded
Across the 198 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 144 (73%) ended in profit and 54 in a loss, for +$43K in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 57%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $131K together, the biggest is “Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?” (No) at 16% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes · entry 60% · closed Jun 18, 2026
+$27K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Yes · entry >99% · closed Jun 18, 2026
+$22K
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Yes · entry 70% · closed Jun 15, 2026
+$15K
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
No · entry 50% · closed Dec 31, 2025
+$9,860
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Yes · entry 48% · closed Apr 8, 2026
+$9,852
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
No · entry 50% · closed Dec 31, 2025
+$9,817
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?
No · entry 6% · closed Aug 30, 2026
+$9,581
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
No · entry 50% · closed Dec 31, 2025
+$9,345
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
No · entry >99% · closed Jul 1, 2026
+$8,018
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
No · entry 82% · closed Oct 6, 2026
+$7,621
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes · entry 50% · closed Dec 31, 2025
−$9,359
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
No · entry 72% · closed Apr 12, 2026
−$7,384
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
Yes · entry 50% · closed Jan 14, 2026
−$4,960
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Yes · entry 0.4% · closed Sep 6, 2026
−$4,895
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?
Yes · entry 98% · closed May 14, 2026
−$4,389
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 13% · closed Oct 23, 2026
−$4,281
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
No · entry 85% · closed Apr 8, 2026
−$3,966
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes · entry 71% · closed Sep 16, 2026
−$3,752
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
No · entry 73% · closed Apr 8, 2026
−$3,682
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?
Yes · entry 14% · closed Oct 3, 2026
−$3,608
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
No · entry 68%, now 75% · ends Oct 28, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$21K
+$1,838 P&L
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
No · entry 92%, now 93% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$15K
+$128 P&L
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Yes · entry 65%, now 66% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$11K
+$44 P&L
US recession by end of 2026?
No · entry 88%, now 92% · ends Jan 31, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$10K
+$385 P&L
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
No · entry 96%, now 97% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$9,695
+$65 P&L
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
No · entry 91%, now 92% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$8,716
+$69 P&L
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
No · entry 62%, now 64% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$8,471
+$229 P&L
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Yes · entry 62%, now 68% · ends Nov 29, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$8,236
+$631 P&L
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Yes · entry 80%, now 73% · ended Sep 14, 2026
$8,232
−$807 P&L
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 75%, now 83% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$6,500
+$604 P&L
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?
No · entry 60%, now 67% · ends Nov 29, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$6,093
+$634 P&L
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
No · entry 52%, now 68% · ends Dec 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$5,933
+$1,364 P&L
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Yes · entry 92%, now 96% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,637
+$192 P&L
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Yes · entry 15%, now >99% · ended Oct 26, 2026
$3,986
+$3,385 P&L
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
No · entry 67%, now 74% · ends Dec 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$3,772
+$358 P&L
Recent trades
Bought No at 90%
US recession by end of 2026?
Bought No at 72%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Bought No at 90%
US recession by end of 2026?
Sold No at 76%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Sold No at 76%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Sold No at 76%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Sold No at 76%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Sold No at 98%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Sold No at 98%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Bought Yes at 2%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Sold No at 98%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Sold No at 98%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Sold No at 59%
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Sold No at 59%
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Sold No at 55%
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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