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Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner odds

Polymarket traders make John Malkovich the favorite for “Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner” at 44% (+2.1 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Matt Damon at 17%.

Market ends:

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Choose an outcome and a stake to see what it would return if it wins.

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If John Malkovich wins “Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner”, $20 returns about $45.15.

Price per share
44.3¢
Implied chance
44%
Shares
45.15
Payout if it wins
$45.15
Profit if it wins
+$25.15
Odds
2.26 · +126

If it loses, the stake is lost. Each share costs the price shown and pays $1 if the outcome wins.

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Polymarket’s taker fee is not included (see our guide to Polymarket fees). Prices are from the last update, 13:11 UTC, 2 Nov 2026, and may have moved since.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Oct 2Nov 2
John MalkovichMatt DamonAndrew ScottTom Cruise

All 22 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Show all 22 outcomes

Long shots that pay the most

The 3 outcomes priced between 2¢ and 15¢ that would pay the most for a $20 stake. Long shots rarely win, and the price already says how rarely: 5¢ is a market-implied chance of about 5%. Most stakes at these prices end up lost.

Payout is before fees and assumes the price shown. How Polymarket fees work.

Where this market stands

“Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner” is a Polymarket event with 22 open outcomes. John Malkovich leads at 44%, ahead of Matt Damon at 17%. John Malkovich is up 2.1 points over the last 24 hours and up 3.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $272K through the event so far, including $1,518 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on July 1, 2027.

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The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor.

If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Who is the favorite in Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner?
John Malkovich is the favorite at 44%, followed by Matt Damon at 17% and Andrew Scott at 17%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will John Malkovich win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
Polymarket traders give John Malkovich a 44% chance, which is decimal odds of 2.26 (American +126): $1 staked on John Malkovich returns about $2.26 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 2.1 points.

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