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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Live odds

Polymarket traders make 0 (0 bps) the favorite for “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026” at 96% (−0.7 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of 1 (25 bps) at 1%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 25
0 (0 bps)1 (25 bps)2 (50 bps)3 (75 bps)

All 13 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“How many Fed rate cuts in 2026” is a Polymarket event with 13 open outcomes. 0 (0 bps) leads at 96%, ahead of 1 (25 bps) at 1%. 0 (0 bps) is down 0.7 points over the last 24 hours and down 0.9 points over the past week. Traders have put $55M through the event so far, including $21K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.

Whale trades in this market

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Who is the favorite in How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps) is the favorite at 96%, followed by 1 (25 bps) at 1% and 2 (50 bps) at 0.4%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket traders give 0 (0 bps) a 96% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.04 (American −2400): $1 staked on 0 (0 bps) returns about $1.04 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 0.7 points.

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