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Fed Decision in October odds

Polymarket traders make No change the favorite for “Fed Decision in October” at 95% (unchanged in the last 24 hours), ahead of 25 bps increase at 6%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 25
No change25 bps increase50+ bps increase25 bps decrease

All 5 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Fed Decision in October” is a Polymarket event with 5 open outcomes. No change leads at 95%, ahead of 25 bps increase at 6%. No change is unchanged over the last 24 hours and up 8.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $64M through the event so far, including $2.1M in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on October 29, 2026.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Who is the favorite in Fed Decision in October?
No change is the favorite at 95%, followed by 25 bps increase at 6% and 50+ bps increase at 0.3%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Polymarket traders give No change a 95% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.06 (American −1718): $1 staked on No change returns about $1.06 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved by less than 0.1 points.

Related odds

Fed Decision in December?

  • 25 bps increase77%
  • No change21%
  • 50+ bps increase3%

$4.7M traded · $62K in 24h

Fed Decision in January?

  • No change68%
  • 25 bps increase28%
  • 50+ bps increase1%

$910K traded · $11K in 24h

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

  • Hike–Pause–Hike75%
  • Hike–Pause–Pause21%
  • Hike–Hike–Pause2%

$489K traded · $14K in 24h