simpleman has made $90K in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #2,160 all time by profit, with 7.7M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 24, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$90K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 7.7M
- Portfolio value
- $137K
- Profit this month
- +$9,186
- Win rate (last 200 closed)
- 59%
How simpleman has traded
Across the 200 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 118 (59%) ended in profit and 82 in a loss, for +$41K in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 58%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $132K together, the biggest is “Another Fed rate hike in 2026?” (Yes) at 42% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?
Yes · entry 20% · closed Jan 20, 2025
+$22K
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 87% · closed Jan 28, 2026
+$15K
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Yes · entry 88% · closed Sep 18, 2025
+$14K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 82% · closed Sep 16, 2026
+$12K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 77% · closed Jul 29, 2026
+$11K
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
Yes · entry 94% · closed Oct 29, 2025
+$9,589
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry >99% · closed Mar 18, 2026
+$6,868
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Yes · entry 93% · closed Dec 10, 2025
+$5,401
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes · entry 71% · closed Sep 16, 2026
+$4,941
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?
Yes · entry 93% · closed Jun 18, 2025
+$3,174
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?
No · entry 39% · closed Feb 12, 2025
−$11K
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?
Yes · entry 29% · closed Jan 22, 2025
−$7,080
Trump cryptocurrency executive order on Day 1?
Yes · entry 46% · closed Jan 23, 2025
−$5,455
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 27% · closed Oct 8, 2026
−$5,299
Will Ben Wikler be the next DNC chair?
Yes · entry 73% · closed Feb 3, 2025
−$4,550
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Lori Chavez-DeRemer as Secretary of Labor?
Yes · entry 87% · closed Mar 11, 2025
−$3,000
Will Ken Martin be the next DNC chair?
No · entry 74% · closed Feb 3, 2025
−$2,275
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?
Yes · entry 77% · closed Apr 30, 2025
−$2,066
Will Donald Trump say "DOGE" or "Department of Governmental Efficiency" during Super Bowl pregame interview?
Yes · entry 48% · closed Feb 12, 2025
−$1,380
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?
No · entry 93% · closed Feb 12, 2025
−$1,331
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes · entry 84%, now 77% · ends Dec 10, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$55K
−$5,740 P&L
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
Yes · entry 52%, now 72% · ends Dec 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$21K
+$5,800 P&L
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Yes · entry 64%, now 75% · ends Dec 9, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$19K
+$2,655 P&L
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 75%, now 77% · ends Dec 9, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$9,401
+$244 P&L
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?
Yes · entry 65%, now 68% · ends Jan 28, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$6,764
+$301 P&L
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?
No · entry 70%, now 87% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,590
+$909 P&L
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?
No · entry 80%, now 86% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$3,413
+$242 P&L
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
No · entry 82%, now 80% · ends Dec 9, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$3,174
−$100 P&L
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?
No · entry 81%, now 93% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,502
+$314 P&L
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?
No · entry 89%, now 92% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,545
+$45 P&L
Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027?
No · entry 89%, now 93% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,258
+$65 P&L
Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?
No · entry 50%, now 76% · ends Oct 28, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,052
+$352 P&L
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
No · entry 90%, now 91% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,017
+$7 P&L
Will Josh Hawley announce a presidential run before 2027?
No · entry 90%, now 94% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$964
+$48 P&L
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Yes · entry 51%, now 59% · ends Jan 27, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$947
+$130 P&L
Recent trades
Bought Yes at 74%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Bought Yes at 74%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Bought Yes at 74%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Bought Yes at 74%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Bought Yes at 74%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Bought Yes at 74%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Bought Yes at 74%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Bought Yes at 74%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Bought Yes at 74%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Bought Yes at 74%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Bought Yes at 0.5%
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Bought Yes at 74%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Bought Yes at 74%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Sold Yes at 94%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Sold Yes at 94%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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