Skip to content
WhaleSays
Open Polymarket

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by odds

The highest-priced market in “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by” is December 31, 2027 at 64% (−2.0 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of June 30, 2027 at 56%. Each market resolves on its own, so these prices do not have to add up to 100%.

Start trading on PolymarketAffiliate link · 18+ · trading involves riskView this market on Polymarket

Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 26
December 31, 2027June 30, 2027February 28, 2027January 31, 2027

All 5 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by” is a Polymarket event with 5 open outcomes. December 31, 2027 has the highest price at 64%, ahead of June 30, 2027 at 56%. December 31, 2027 is down 2.0 points over the last 24 hours and up 1.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $1.6M through the event so far, including $14K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

All whale trades

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?
Polymarket currently prices Yes at 64% in this market, which is decimal odds of 1.57 (American −174): $1 staked on Yes returns about $1.57 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 2.0 points.

Related odds

How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026?

  • 475k to 500k25%
  • 500k to 525k18%
  • 525k to 550k17%

$6,757 traded · $586 in 24h

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?

  • Yes16%

$11K traded · $526 in 24h

Will Tesla perform another live stunt with the Roadster by...?

  • April 30, 202743%
  • December 31, 202611%

$2,756 traded · $207 in 24h