How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026? Live odds
Polymarket traders make 475k to 500k the favorite for “How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026” at 26% (−7.0 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of 450k to 475k at 19%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 4 outcomes right now.
All 9 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- 26%
475k to 500k26%24h −7.0 ptsOdds 3.92US +292Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 19%450k to 475k19%24h +1.0 ptsOdds 5.26US +426Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 18%500k to 525k18%24h −1.0 ptsOdds 5.71US +471Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 13%525k to 550k13%24h −1.3 ptsOdds 7.58US +658Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 12%400k to 425k12%24h −3.5 ptsOdds 8.33US +733Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 8%575k+8%24h −5.0 ptsOdds 13.33US +1233Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 7%425k to 450k7%24h −4.0 ptsOdds 15.27US +1427Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 3%<400k3%24h +1.5 ptsOdds 37.74US +3674Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 0.5%550k to 575k0.5%24h −0.1 ptsOdds 200.00US +19900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026” is a Polymarket event with 9 open outcomes. 475k to 500k leads at 26%, ahead of 450k to 475k at 19%. 475k to 500k is down 7.0 points over the last 24 hours and unchanged over the past week. Traders have put $6,757 through the event so far, including $586 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on March 1, 2027.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
No trades of $1,000 or more on this market recently.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q4 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q4 2026 delivery figures by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press; however, other official company sources or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
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- Who is the favorite in How many Tesla deliveries in Q4 2026?
- 475k to 500k is the favorite at 26%, followed by 450k to 475k at 19% and 500k to 525k at 18%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
- What are the odds on 475k to 500k?
- Polymarket traders give 475k to 500k a 26% chance, which is decimal odds of 3.92 (American +292): $1 staked on 475k to 500k returns about $3.92 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 7.0 points.
