DerDon has made $97K in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #2,004 all time by profit, with 13M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 26, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$97K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 13M
- Portfolio value
- $112K
- Profit this month
- +$1,257
- Win rate (last 197 closed)
- 56%
How DerDon has traded
Across the 197 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 111 (56%) ended in profit and 86 in a loss, for +$6,094 in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 50%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. 99 of the 197 are about politics and elections, judging by keywords in the market titles. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $55K together, the biggest is “Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?” (No) at 16% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Yes · entry 17% · closed Jul 20, 2026
+$25K
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?
No · entry 8% · closed Apr 2, 2026
+$8,935
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 47% · closed Jan 7, 2026
+$5,649
Will MrBeast hit 475 Million subscribers by March 31?
No · entry 8% · closed Apr 1, 2026
+$4,574
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Yes · entry 44% · closed Apr 8, 2026
+$4,052
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Yes · entry 55% · closed Jun 1, 2026
+$4,018
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes · entry 38% · closed Jun 18, 2026
+$4,010
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Yes · entry 38% · closed Jun 30, 2026
+$3,999
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes · entry 13% · closed Jul 17, 2026
+$3,833
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press conference?
No · entry 18% · closed Apr 30, 2026
+$3,636
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
No · entry 70% · closed Mar 4, 2026
−$10K
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?
No · entry 88% · closed Jan 9, 2026
−$10K
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
No · entry 93% · closed May 11, 2026
−$8,546
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Yes · entry 19% · closed Sep 22, 2026
−$7,392
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
No · entry 57% · closed Jun 18, 2026
−$5,982
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Yes · entry 16% · closed Jul 15, 2026
−$4,920
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Yes · entry 40% · closed Sep 7, 2026
−$4,315
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?
Yes · entry 22% · closed May 25, 2026
−$3,642
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
No · entry 70% · closed Mar 14, 2026
−$3,630
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Yes · entry 62% · closed Aug 16, 2026
−$3,415
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?
No · entry 63%, now 69% · ends Jan 4, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$8,639
+$661 P&L
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
No · entry 72%, now 86% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$8,417
+$1,375 P&L
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
No · entry 30%, now 25% · ended Sep 7, 2026
$4,821
−$981 P&L
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?
No · entry 79%, now 79% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,446
+$7 P&L
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?
No · entry 48%, now 44% · ends Jul 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$3,493
−$386 P&L
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 94%, now 96% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,868
+$59 P&L
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes · entry 71%, now 70% · ends Oct 27, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,827
−$34 P&L
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
No · entry 93%, now 94% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,805
+$15 P&L
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 50%, now 37% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,714
−$992 P&L
Will AfD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?
No · entry 96%, now 99% · ended Sep 21, 2026
$2,418
+$78 P&L
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?
No · entry 64%, now 72% · ends Mar 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,392
+$266 P&L
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
No · entry 97%, now 94% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,294
−$80 P&L
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
No · entry 31%, now 79% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,282
+$1,372 P&L
Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026?
No · entry 93%, now 95% · ends Jan 4, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,240
+$50 P&L
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?
No · entry 45%, now 37% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,232
−$490 P&L
Recent trades
Bought No at 77%
Will Pau Cubarsi finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Bought No at 77%
Will Pau Cubarsi finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Bought No at 77%
Will Pau Cubarsi finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Bought No at 58%
Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Bought No at 58%
Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Bought No at 58%
Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Sold Yes at 0.6%
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?
Bought No at 58%
Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Bought No at 58%
Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Bought No at 58%
Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Bought No at 58%
Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Bought No at 58%
Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Bought No at 58%
Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Bought Yes at 3%
Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?
Bought Yes at 3%
Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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