Skip to content
WhaleSays
Open Polymarket

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31? Live odds

Polymarket traders put the chance of Yes at 16% and No at 84% for “Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31” (Yes +1.0 pts in the last 24 hours).

Start trading on PolymarketAffiliate link · 18+ · trading involves riskView this market on Polymarket

Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Chance of Yes over the last 30 days

Price of a Yes share.

Sep 26Oct 26

Yes and No odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31” is a Polymarket market with two outcomes. Yes is priced at 16% and No at 84%; Yes is up 1.0 points over the last 24 hours and down 2.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $11K through the market so far, including $526 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

All whale trades

No trades of $1,000 or more on this market recently.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.

Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?
Polymarket currently prices Yes at 16% (decimal odds 6.25, American +525) and No at 84% (decimal odds 1.19, American −525). The price of a Yes share is the market's implied probability that this happens.
When does this market close?
The listed end date is January 1, 2027. Read the resolution rules on this page to see what counts and who decides.

Related odds

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

  • Google85%
  • Anthropic13%
  • OpenAI1%

$3.6M traded · $146K in 24h

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

  • $1.75–$2.0T30%
  • $2.0–$2.25T20%
  • $1.5–$1.75T20%

$2.4M traded · $117K in 24h

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

  • Anthropic54%
  • Google34%
  • OpenAI6%

$3.0M traded · $59K in 24h