Dragontree has made $157K in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #1,296 all time by profit, with 16M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 25, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$157K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 16M
- Portfolio value
- $65K
- Profit this month
- −$5,369
- Win rate (last 199 closed)
- 66%
How Dragontree has traded
Across the 199 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 131 (66%) ended in profit and 68 in a loss, for +$5,845 in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 58%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. 82 of the 199 are about politics and elections, judging by keywords in the market titles. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $60K together, the biggest is “Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?” (No) at 37% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Yes · entry 44% · closed Jun 18, 2026
+$76K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes · entry 54% · closed Jun 18, 2026
+$35K
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Yes · entry 29% · closed Jun 15, 2026
+$28K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 19% · closed Jul 29, 2026
+$20K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Yes · entry 2% · closed May 23, 2026
+$17K
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1?
No · entry 39% · closed May 2, 2026
+$16K
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
No · entry 9% · closed Apr 11, 2026
+$16K
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
No · entry 29% · closed May 23, 2026
+$15K
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Yes · entry 10% · closed Mar 29, 2026
+$14K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?
No · entry 14% · closed May 26, 2026
+$13K
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
No · entry 23% · closed Jun 14, 2026
−$29K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Yes · entry 45% · closed May 26, 2026
−$19K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
No · entry 95% · closed May 23, 2026
−$17K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
No · entry 99% · closed May 19, 2026
−$13K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Yes · entry 8% · closed Jun 8, 2026
−$13K
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
No · entry 9% · closed Mar 4, 2026
−$13K
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Yes · entry 3% · closed Jul 7, 2026
−$12K
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
No · entry 97% · closed Feb 1, 2026
−$12K
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?
Yes · entry 87% · closed Aug 30, 2026
−$12K
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
No · entry 61% · closed May 14, 2026
−$11K
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
No · entry 72%, now 75% · ends Oct 28, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$22K
+$750 P&L
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
No · entry 76%, now 83% · ends Jan 5, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$14K
+$1,117 P&L
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?
Yes · entry 64%, now 63% · ends Nov 9, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$3,388
−$80 P&L
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Yes · entry 60%, now 86% · ends Oct 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$3,299
+$981 P&L
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?
Yes · entry 66%, now 56% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$3,064
−$596 P&L
Will Donald Trump be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
No · entry 90%, now 92% · ends Dec 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,811
+$46 P&L
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?
No · entry 76%, now 76% · ends Dec 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,326
−$27 P&L
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?
Yes · entry 73%, now 64% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,164
−$310 P&L
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
Yes · entry 58%, now 48% · ends Nov 16, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,862
−$378 P&L
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)
No · entry 24%, now 96% · ends Oct 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,019
+$765 P&L
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
No · entry 17%, now 13% · ends Oct 29, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$673
−$241 P&L
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
No · entry 16%, now 14% · ends Oct 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$600
−$62 P&L
Will Catherine O'Hara be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?
No · entry 91%, now 98% · ends Apr 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$579
+$43 P&L
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?
No · entry 93%, now 96% · ends Jan 5, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$573
+$15 P&L
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
Yes · entry 12%, now 19% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$572
+$207 P&L
Recent trades
Bought Yes at 0.2%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Bought Yes at 0.2%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Bought Yes at 0.2%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Bought No at 16%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Bought No at 9%
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
Bought Yes at 64%
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?
Bought Yes at 0.2%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Bought Yes at 0.2%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Bought No at 71%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?
Bought No at 71%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?
Bought Yes at 0.2%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Bought Yes at 0.2%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Bought Yes at 0.2%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Bought No at 71%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?
Bought No at 71%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
More to explore: full leaderboard, live whale trades, events with live odds and how to start.