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2028 Democratic nominee odds

Polymarket traders give Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a 17% chance of winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination (+0.9 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Gavin Newsom at 15%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 25
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezGavin NewsomJon OssoffKamala Harris

All 53 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Show all 53 outcomes

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

What this market asks

Who will be the Democratic Party's candidate for US president in 2028? Each named person has a Yes/No market, and the price is the market's implied chance that they win and accept the nomination. The question is the party's choice, not the general election, so a strong nominee-market price does not mean the same chance of reaching the White House. Names that have not declared can still be listed, and most of them stay close to zero until a campaign launches. The market is mainly useful for reading how the party's voters and donors are sorting the field.

How it resolves and key dates

A person's market resolves to Yes if they win and accept the 2028 Democratic nomination. Polymarket uses a consensus of official Democratic Party sources to confirm it. Swapping the nominee after the nomination, for example before Election Day, does not change how the market resolves: it pays out on the person who won the nomination.

Nominations are decided by delegates. Candidates collect them through state primaries and caucuses in the months before the party convention, held in the summer of the election year. The nominee needs a majority of delegates at the convention.

What moves these odds

Before the race starts, prices follow who is expected to run, who is raising money and building a national profile, and how potential candidates poll with Democratic voters. Once primaries begin, results in the early states move prices fast: a surprise win can lift a candidate by many points overnight, and a poor showing can end a campaign's market value almost at once.

Endorsements from party leaders and officeholders, debate performances and the results of the 2026 midterm elections also matter, because they shape which candidates look strongest to primary voters.

Common questions

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How does Polymarket resolve the Democratic nominee market?
A person's market resolves to Yes if that person wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic Party nomination for president, based on a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Everyone else resolves to No.
What happens if the nominee is replaced later?
Nothing changes for this market. Replacing the Democratic nominee before Election Day does not change the resolution; it stays tied to who won the nomination.
How is the Democratic nominee chosen?
Through state primaries and caucuses that award delegates, followed by a vote at the party's national convention in the summer of the election year. A majority of delegates is needed.
Why are the percentages different from the presidential election market?
This market only asks who wins the party's nomination. The presidential market asks who wins the general election, so a candidate must win both steps.
Who is the favorite in Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028?
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the favorite at 17%, followed by Gavin Newsom at 15% and Jon Ossoff at 15%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket traders give Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a 17% chance of winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, which is decimal odds of 5.83 (American +483): $1 staked on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez returns about $5.83 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 0.9 points.

Related odds

Also see 2028 presidential election odds and 2028 Republican nominee odds.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

  • J.D. Vance40%
  • Marco Rubio18%
  • Ron DeSantis3%

$717M traded · $495K in 24h

Which party will win the House in 2026?

  • Democratic Party92%
  • Republican Party9%

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Presidential Election Winner 2028

  • JD Vance20%
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
  • Gavin Newsom11%

$719M traded · $504K in 24h