risk-manager
0xa61e…0abd · Joined October 15, 2024
risk-manager has made $196K in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #1,068 all time by profit, with 699M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 25, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$196K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 699M
- Portfolio value
- $152K
- Profit this month
- −$3,413
- Win rate (last 189 closed)
- 58%
How risk-manager has traded
Across the 189 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 110 (58%) ended in profit and 79 in a loss, for +$114K in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 42%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $145K together, the biggest is “Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?” (No) at 15% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Yes · entry 30% · closed Sep 17, 2025
+$196K
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
Yes · entry 0.3% · closed Dec 10, 2025
+$103K
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
Yes · entry 33% · closed Oct 28, 2025
+$97K
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
Yes · entry 3% · closed Dec 10, 2025
+$78K
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
Yes · entry 0.5% · closed Oct 29, 2025
+$59K
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Yes · entry 3% · closed May 9, 2026
+$59K
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 0.2% · closed Jan 28, 2026
+$53K
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
No · entry 2% · closed Oct 29, 2025
+$48K
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Yes · entry 2% · closed Nov 22, 2025
+$42K
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Yes · entry 96% · closed Dec 10, 2025
+$39K
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
No · entry 98% · closed Dec 11, 2025
−$166K
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
Yes · entry 15% · closed Sep 17, 2025
−$154K
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
Yes · entry 0.4% · closed Oct 31, 2025
−$109K
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
Yes · entry 1% · closed Dec 10, 2025
−$71K
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
Yes · entry 0.5% · closed Oct 29, 2025
−$66K
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
Yes · entry 7% · closed Sep 17, 2025
−$58K
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 1.0% · closed Jan 29, 2026
−$54K
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
No · entry 97% · closed Jan 1, 2026
−$40K
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 3% · closed Jan 29, 2026
−$39K
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?
No · entry 54% · closed Sep 8, 2025
−$28K
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
No · entry 79%, now 84% · ends Jan 5, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$22K
+$1,040 P&L
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
No · entry 81%, now 89% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$21K
+$1,905 P&L
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes · entry 31%, now 15% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$16K
−$16K P&L
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
No · entry 94%, now 96% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$16K
+$227 P&L
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
No · entry 85%, now 94% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$15K
+$1,463 P&L
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No · entry 96%, now 96% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$10K
+$53 P&L
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
No · entry 83%, now 92% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$9,150
+$850 P&L
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No · entry 83%, now 80% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$8,000
−$275 P&L
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
No · entry 84%, now 93% · ends Jan 5, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,703
+$425 P&L
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
No · entry 75%, now 96% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,297
+$923 P&L
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
No · entry 86%, now 86% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,275
−$25 P&L
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
Yes · entry 89%, now 77% · ends Jan 5, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,202
−$647 P&L
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
No · entry 91%, now 95% · ends Jan 5, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,027
+$173 P&L
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes · entry 0.8%, now 0.1% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$3,291
−$14K P&L
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
No · entry 70%, now 74% · ends Jan 5, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,940
+$140 P&L
Recent trades
Sold Yes at 0.2%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Bought No at 95%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
Sold Yes at 0.2%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Bought No at 95%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Sold Yes at 0.2%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Sold Yes at 0.2%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Sold Yes at 0.2%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Sold Yes at 0.2%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Sold Yes at 0.2%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Sold Yes at 0.2%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Sold Yes at 0.2%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Sold Yes at 0.2%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Sold Yes at 0.2%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Sold Yes at 0.2%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Sold Yes at 0.2%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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