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2028 Republican nominee odds

Polymarket traders give J.D. Vance a 40% chance of winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination (−4.2 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Marco Rubio at 18%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 25
J.D. VanceMarco RubioRon DeSantisTucker Carlson

All 43 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Show all 43 outcomes

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

What this market asks

Who will carry the Republican Party into the 2028 presidential election? Every listed person has a Yes/No market. The price is the market's implied probability that they win and accept the nomination. It is a primary-season question: it says nothing by itself about a candidate's chance in November. Names that have not declared can still be listed, and most of them stay close to zero until a campaign launches. The market is mainly useful for reading how the party's voters and donors are sorting the field.

How it resolves and key dates

A person's market resolves to Yes if they win and accept the 2028 Republican nomination for president. Polymarket confirms the result with a consensus of official Republican Party sources. If the nominee is replaced before Election Day, the market does not change: it still pays out on the person who won the nomination.

Delegates decide the nomination. They are won in state primaries and caucuses ahead of the Republican National Convention in the summer of 2028, where a majority of delegates is needed to become the nominee.

What moves these odds

The biggest drivers are signals from party leaders and donors, polling among Republican primary voters, and who announces a campaign. Endorsements from prominent officeholders and the party's popular figures can move a name by several points. Once voting starts, early-state results dominate.

Events outside the party matter too: the state of the economy, the results of the 2026 midterm elections and how the White House is judged all shape which kind of candidate Republican voters want. Large trades from experienced wallets often show up here before the news does, which you can follow in the whale feed below.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

How does Polymarket resolve the Republican nominee market?
A person's market resolves to Yes if that person wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for president, according to a consensus of official Republican Party sources. All other names resolve to No.
What if the nominee changes after the convention?
The market is not affected. Replacing the Republican nominee before Election Day does not change the resolution.
When is the Republican nominee decided?
Primaries and caucuses in the months before the Republican National Convention award delegates, and the convention in the summer of 2028 formally selects the nominee.
Do these odds include people who have not announced?
Yes. Polymarket lists many possible candidates, declared or not. Names that have not signalled a run usually trade at low prices.
Who is the favorite in Republican Presidential Nominee 2028?
J.D. Vance is the favorite at 40%, followed by Marco Rubio at 18% and Ron DeSantis at 3%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Polymarket traders give J.D. Vance a 40% chance of winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, which is decimal odds of 2.49 (American +149): $1 staked on J.D. Vance returns about $2.49 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 4.2 points.

Related odds

Also see 2028 presidential election odds and 2028 Democratic nominee odds.

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