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Will Anthropic’s valuation hit X by December 31? Live odds

The most likely target still in play is “Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?”, which Polymarket traders price at 87% (−7.0 pts in the last 24 hours), followed by “↑$1.75T” at 77%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 25
↑$1.5T↑$1.75T↑$2.0T↑$2.25T

All 11 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Will Anthropic’s valuation hit X by December 31” is a Polymarket event with 11 open outcomes. The likeliest target still in play is ↑$1.5T at 87%, ahead of ↑$1.75T at 77%; ↑$1.5T is down 7.0 points over the last 24 hours and up 3.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $6.1M through the event so far, including $30K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 5, 2027.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.

If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.

If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.

If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.

Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.

If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.

If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.

The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Which outcome is most likely in Will Anthropic’s valuation hit X by December 31?
Among the targets still in play, the highest probabilities are: ↑$1.5T (87%), ↑$1.75T (77%), ↑$2.0T (59%). Each target is a separate market that resolves Yes if the price is touched.
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
Polymarket currently prices Yes at 87%, which is decimal odds of 1.16 (American −641): $1 staked on Yes returns about $1.16 if the target is hit, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 7.0 points.

Related odds

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

  • $1.75–$2.0T35%
  • $2.0–$2.25T19%
  • $1.5–$1.75T18%

$2.4M traded · $84K in 24h

What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?

  • $1.50–$1.75T60%
  • $1.75–$2.00T24%
  • $1.25–$1.50T5%

$225K traded · $10K in 24h

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

  • November 202662%
  • December 202622%
  • January 20277%

$449K traded · $6,665 in 24h