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Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026? Live odds

Polymarket traders make Spider-Man: Brand New Day the favorite for “Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026” at 53% (−2.0 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Avengers: Doomsday at 48%.

Market ends:

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Back your pick

Choose an outcome and a stake to see what it would return if it wins.

Your pick

If Spider-Man: Brand New Day wins “Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026”, $20 returns about $38.10.

Price per share
52.5¢
Implied chance
53%
Shares
38.10
Payout if it wins
$38.10
Profit if it wins
+$18.10
Odds
1.90 · −111

If it loses, the stake is lost. Each share costs the price shown and pays $1 if the outcome wins.

Back Spider-Man: Brand New Day on Polymarket

Affiliate link · 18+ · prices move; you can lose your stake · not financial advice

Polymarket’s taker fee is not included (see our guide to Polymarket fees). Prices are from the last update, 13:57 UTC, 2 Nov 2026, and may have moved since.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Oct 2Nov 2
Spider-Man: Brand New DayAvengers: DoomsdayDune: MessiahToy Story 5

All 5 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026” is a Polymarket event with 5 open outcomes. Spider-Man: Brand New Day leads at 53%, ahead of Avengers: Doomsday at 48%. Spider-Man: Brand New Day is down 2.0 points over the last 24 hours and down 7.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $219K through the event so far, including $5,554 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on February 1, 2027.

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The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.

If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Who is the favorite in Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day is the favorite at 53%, followed by Avengers: Doomsday at 48% and Dune: Messiah at 0.1%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Polymarket traders give Spider-Man: Brand New Day a 53% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.90 (American −111): $1 staked on Spider-Man: Brand New Day returns about $1.90 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 2.0 points.

Related odds

Highest grossing movie in 2026?

  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day95%
  • Avengers: Doomsday5%
  • Wicked: For Good<0.1%

$18M traded · $38K in 24h

Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day50%
  • Avengers: Doomsday48%
  • The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping<0.1%

$2.6M traded · $7,655 in 24h

Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?

  • Avengers: Doomsday55%
  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day45%
  • The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping<0.1%

$321K traded · $5,996 in 24h