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Texas Senate Election Winner odds

Polymarket traders make James Talarico (D) the favorite for “Texas Senate Election Winner” at 65% (+1.0 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Ken Paxton (R) at 36%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 2 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 25
James Talarico (D)Ken Paxton (R)

All 2 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Texas Senate Election Winner” is a Polymarket event with 2 open outcomes. James Talarico (D) leads at 65%, ahead of Ken Paxton (R) at 36%. James Talarico (D) is up 1.0 points over the last 24 hours and up 2.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $6.3M through the event so far, including $243K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026.

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The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Who is the favorite in Texas Senate Election Winner?
James Talarico (D) is the favorite at 65%, followed by Ken Paxton (R) at 36%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket traders give James Talarico (D) a 65% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.55 (American −182): $1 staked on James Talarico (D) returns about $1.55 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 1.0 points.

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