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Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections odds

Polymarket traders make ≤47 the favorite for “Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections” at 40% (−2.0 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of 48 at 17%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 25
≤47484950

All 11 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections” is a Polymarket event with 11 open outcomes. ≤47 leads at 40%, ahead of 48 at 17%. ≤47 is down 2.0 points over the last 24 hours and unchanged over the past week. Traders have put $3.7M through the event so far, including $241K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 3, 2026.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.

The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.

For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.

For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.

Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Who is the favorite in Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤47 is the favorite at 40%, followed by 48 at 17% and 49 at 11%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Polymarket traders give ≤47 a 40% chance, which is decimal odds of 2.53 (American +153): $1 staked on ≤47 returns about $2.53 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 2.0 points.

Related odds

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

  • Democratic Party66%
  • Republican Party35%

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Which party will win the House in 2026?

  • Democratic Party92%
  • Republican Party9%

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Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

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