2026 MO-02 House Race odds
Polymarket traders make Ann Wagner (R) the favorite for “MO-02 House Election Winner” at 60% (−2.0 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Fred Wellman (D) at 41%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 2 outcomes right now.
All 2 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- 60%
Ann Wagner (R)60%24h −2.0 ptsOdds 1.68US −147Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 41%
Fred Wellman (D)41%24h +2.5 ptsOdds 2.47US +147Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“MO-02 House Election Winner” is a Polymarket event with 2 open outcomes. Ann Wagner (R) leads at 60%, ahead of Fred Wellman (D) at 41%. Ann Wagner (R) is down 2.0 points over the last 24 hours and down 3.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $196K through the event so far, including $59K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed bought No at 59%
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?
DOLBAEB1 bought Yes at 41%
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?
BigMackyG bought Yes at 40%
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?
goingsocial sold Yes at 58%
Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?
goingsocial bought Yes at 63%
Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?
anoin123 bought No at 63%
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?
Gaditima bought Yes at 64%
Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?
Gaditima bought Yes at 61%
Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?
sollydisa sold Yes at 40%
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?
SitsToPee sold Yes at 25%
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?
SitsToPee bought Yes at 27%
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?
cowcat bought Yes at 71%
Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- Who is the favorite in MO-02 House Election Winner?
- Ann Wagner (R) is the favorite at 60%, followed by Fred Wellman (D) at 41%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
- Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?
- Polymarket traders give Ann Wagner (R) a 60% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.68 (American −147): $1 staked on Ann Wagner (R) returns about $1.68 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 2.0 points.
