Skip to content
WhaleSays
Open Polymarket

Michigan Senate Election Winner odds

Polymarket traders make Abdul El-Sayed (D) the favorite for “Michigan Senate Election Winner” at 71% (−1.0 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Mike Rogers (R) at 30%.

Start trading on PolymarketAffiliate link · 18+ · trading involves riskView this market on Polymarket

Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 2 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 25
Abdul El-Sayed (D)Mike Rogers (R)

All 2 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Michigan Senate Election Winner” is a Polymarket event with 2 open outcomes. Abdul El-Sayed (D) leads at 71%, ahead of Mike Rogers (R) at 30%. Abdul El-Sayed (D) is down 1.0 points over the last 24 hours and up 1.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $2.6M through the event so far, including $223K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

All whale trades

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Who is the favorite in Michigan Senate Election Winner?
Abdul El-Sayed (D) is the favorite at 71%, followed by Mike Rogers (R) at 30%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket traders give Abdul El-Sayed (D) a 71% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.42 (American −239): $1 staked on Abdul El-Sayed (D) returns about $1.42 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 1.0 points.

Related odds

Texas Senate Election Winner

  • James Talarico (D)65%
  • Ken Paxton (R)36%

$6.3M traded · $240K in 24h

Which party will win the House in 2026?

  • Democratic Party92%
  • Republican Party9%

$22M traded · $791K in 24h

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

  • Democrats Sweep66%
  • R Senate, D House26%
  • Republicans Sweep8%

$37M traded · $399K in 24h