kaxel78 has made $145K in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #1,390 all time by profit, with 1.0M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 25, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$145K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 1.0M
- Portfolio value
- $411
- Profit this month
- +$635K
- Win rate (last 197 closed)
- 47%
How kaxel78 has traded
Across the 197 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 92 (47%) ended in profit and 105 in a loss, for +$97K in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 64%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $180 together, the biggest is “Will The Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?” (Yes) at 8% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
No · entry 21% · closed Oct 22, 2026
+$25K
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
No · entry 32% · closed Oct 25, 2026
+$19K
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
No · entry 36% · closed Oct 25, 2026
+$15K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
No · entry 5% · closed Oct 25, 2026
+$15K
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
No · entry 30% · closed Oct 25, 2026
+$12K
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
No · entry 35% · closed Oct 25, 2026
+$8,655
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
No · entry 68% · closed Oct 25, 2026
+$8,000
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
No · entry 65% · closed Oct 25, 2026
+$6,369
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
No · entry 78% · closed Oct 22, 2026
+$6,110
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?
No · entry 64% · closed Oct 25, 2026
+$5,250
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 20% · closed Oct 25, 2026
−$4,610
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 20% · closed Oct 25, 2026
−$4,596
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
No · entry 95% · closed Oct 25, 2026
−$1,388
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 20% · closed Oct 21, 2026
−$1,115
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
No · entry 98% · closed Oct 21, 2026
−$1,053
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?
No · entry 97% · closed Oct 19, 2026
−$1,045
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 20% · closed Oct 21, 2026
−$979
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?
No · entry 97% · closed Oct 20, 2026
−$940
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?
No · entry 96% · closed Oct 24, 2026
−$922
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
No · entry 99% · closed Oct 25, 2026
−$892
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will The Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Yes · entry 3%, now <0.1% · ended Oct 28, 2026
$14
−$704 P&L
Will Shas win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Yes · entry 3%, now <0.1% · ended Oct 28, 2026
$14
−$704 P&L
Will Otzma Yehudit win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Yes · entry 3%, now <0.1% · ended Oct 28, 2026
$14
−$704 P&L
Will Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Yes · entry 3%, now <0.1% · ended Oct 25, 2026
$13
−$678 P&L
Will SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Yes · entry 3%, now <0.1% · ended Oct 25, 2026
$13
−$678 P&L
Will European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Yes · entry 3%, now <0.1% · ended Oct 25, 2026
$13
−$678 P&L
Will Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Yes · entry 3%, now <0.1% · ended Oct 25, 2026
$13
−$678 P&L
Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Yes · entry 3%, now <0.1% · ended Oct 25, 2026
$13
−$678 P&L
Will Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Yes · entry 3%, now <0.1% · ended Oct 25, 2026
$13
−$678 P&L
Will Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Yes · entry 3%, now <0.1% · ended Oct 25, 2026
$13
−$678 P&L
Will Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP) win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Yes · entry 3%, now <0.1% · ended Oct 25, 2026
$13
−$678 P&L
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes · entry 1%, now <0.1% · ended Oct 27, 2026
$8
−$175 P&L
Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes · entry 1%, now <0.1% · ended Oct 27, 2026
$8
−$175 P&L
Will João Neves win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes · entry 1%, now <0.1% · ended Oct 27, 2026
$8
−$175 P&L
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes · entry 1%, now <0.1% · ended Oct 27, 2026
$8
−$175 P&L
Recent trades
Bought No at 68%
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Bought No at 32%
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Bought No at >99%
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Sold Yes at 0.1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
Sold Yes at 0.1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
Sold Yes at 0.1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
Sold Yes at 0.1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
Sold Yes at 0.1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
Sold Yes at 0.1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
Bought Yes at 52%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Bought No at 51%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Bought No at 51%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Sold Yes at 0.1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
Sold Yes at 0.1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
Sold Yes at 0.1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
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