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Fed rate decision odds

Polymarket traders give No change a 95% chance at the next Federal Reserve meeting (unchanged in the last 24 hours), ahead of 25 bps increase at 6%.

This page always follows the next scheduled decision. Right now that is “Fed Decision in October”, which ends on October 29, 2026.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 25
No change25 bps increase50+ bps increase25 bps decrease

All 5 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

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How this market resolves

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

What this market asks

How will the Federal Reserve change interest rates at its next meeting? Polymarket lists each possible move as an outcome, from a large cut through no change to a hike. Prices are the market's implied probabilities, and because exactly one outcome can happen they add up to roughly 100%. This page always follows the next scheduled decision, so when one meeting is settled it moves on to the following one.

The rate in question is the upper bound of the federal funds target range. Traders are not guessing the level of the rate, only the change versus where it stood before the meeting.

How it resolves and key dates

The market resolves to the change, in basis points, in the upper bound of the target range compared with the level before that meeting. The source is the statement the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) publishes after the meeting, per the official calendar on the Federal Reserve's website. A move that is not one of the listed brackets is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.

The FOMC meets about eight times a year, over two days, and publishes its decision on the second day. If no statement is released by the end of the market, it resolves to the no change bracket. Each meeting has its own Polymarket event, so check the end date shown in the key facts for the meeting this page currently tracks.

What moves these odds

Inflation and jobs data are the biggest drivers. Hot inflation readings push traders toward hold or hike, while weak payrolls and rising unemployment push them toward cuts. Fed officials' speeches, the minutes of the previous meeting and the central bank's own projections also shift prices in the weeks before a decision.

In the final days the market usually settles on one outcome, because the Fed tends to avoid surprising markets. Prices on the less likely moves can still jump on a single data release or a comment from the Fed chair, which is why large trades are worth watching.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

How often does the Federal Reserve decide on interest rates?
The Federal Open Market Committee holds about eight scheduled meetings a year and announces its decision on the second day of each. It can also act between meetings in an emergency.
How does Polymarket decide the Fed rate decision market?
It resolves to the change in basis points of the upper bound of the target federal funds range, versus the level before the meeting, using the FOMC's statement after the meeting. Changes that are not one of the listed brackets are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
What if the Fed does not announce a decision?
If no statement is released by the end of the market, it resolves to the no change bracket.
Are these odds the same as the CME FedWatch tool?
No. FedWatch derives probabilities from fed funds futures prices. Polymarket odds are prices set by traders betting on the outcome. They usually point the same way, but they are separate markets and can differ.
Who is the favorite in Fed Decision in October?
No change is the favorite at 95%, followed by 25 bps increase at 6% and 50+ bps increase at 0.3%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Polymarket traders give No change a 95% chance at the next Federal Reserve meeting, which is decimal odds of 1.06 (American −1718): $1 staked on No change returns about $1.06 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved by less than 0.1 points.

Related odds

Also see 2028 presidential election odds and Bitcoin price prediction 2026.

Fed Decision in December?

  • 25 bps increase77%
  • No change21%
  • 50+ bps increase3%

$4.7M traded · $62K in 24h

Fed Decision in January?

  • No change68%
  • 25 bps increase28%
  • 50+ bps increase1%

$910K traded · $11K in 24h

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

  • Hike–Pause–Hike75%
  • Hike–Pause–Pause21%
  • Hike–Hike–Pause2%

$489K traded · $14K in 24h