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Bitcoin price prediction 2026

The most likely target still in play is “Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?”, which Polymarket traders price at 48% (+1.0 pts in the last 24 hours), followed by “Dip to $70,000” at 40%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 25
Reach $90,000Dip to $70,000Reach $95,000Dip to $65,000

All 30 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Show all 30 outcomes

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How this market resolves

What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?

Each outcome in this event has its own resolution rules. Read them on the Polymarket market page before you trade.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

What this market asks

Instead of one forecast number, Polymarket asks a series of yes-or-no questions: will Bitcoin reach a given price, or dip to a given price, at any point before the end of 2026? Each target has its own market. The price of that market is the implied probability that the level gets touched. Together they sketch the range traders expect.

This is different from asking where Bitcoin will close the year. A target only has to be touched once, so the chance of touching a price is always at least as high as the chance of ending the year above it.

How it resolves and key dates

A reach market resolves to Yes as soon as a Binance one-minute candle for BTC/USDT has a final High at or above the target. A dip market resolves to Yes as soon as a candle has a final Low at or below the target. Otherwise it resolves to No at the end of December 31, 2026 (11:59 PM ET).

Only the Binance BTC/USDT pair counts. Prices on other exchanges, other trading pairs or spot indices do not. Targets that have already been hit resolve to Yes and drop off the live list, so the table shows only the levels still in play.

What moves these odds

The distance between the current Bitcoin price and the target is the first factor, and the time left in the year is the second: with less time, a far-off level becomes less likely to be touched. Volatility matters too. Calm markets lower the odds of far targets, sharp swings raise them for both reaching and dipping.

Macro news such as interest rate decisions, ETF inflows and outflows, regulation, and large liquidations in leveraged markets are the usual triggers for big moves. Because this is a touch market, a short spike is enough, so brief wicks on Binance count.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Does Bitcoin have to close the year above the target?
No. A reach market resolves to Yes if a single one-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle trades at or above the target price at any time during the period, even briefly. The year-end price is irrelevant.
Which exchange decides these markets?
Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair on one-minute candles. Prices on other exchanges or other pairs are not used.
What is the difference between a reach market and a dip market?
A reach market asks whether Bitcoin will trade up to a price, using the candle High. A dip market asks whether it will fall to a price, using the candle Low. Both are settled on Binance BTC/USDT.
When do these markets end?
At the end of December 31, 2026 (11:59 PM ET). A target that is hit earlier resolves to Yes straight away.
Which outcome is most likely in What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
Among the targets still in play, the highest probabilities are: Reach $90,000 (48%), Dip to $70,000 (40%), Reach $95,000 (28%). Each target is a separate market that resolves Yes if the price is touched.
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket currently prices Yes at 48%, which is decimal odds of 2.11 (American +111): $1 staked on Yes returns about $2.11 if the target is hit, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 1.0 points.

Related odds

Also see 2028 presidential election odds and Super Bowl odds.

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

  • Dip to $80,00090%
  • Reach $82,50057%
  • Dip to $77,50042%

$11M traded · $383K in 24h

What price will Bitcoin hit October 19-25?

  • Dip to $80,00050%
  • Reach $82,0006%
  • Dip to $78,0002%

$1.9M traded · $273K in 24h

What price will Bitcoin hit on October 25?

  • Dip to $80,00048%
  • Reach $81,00044%
  • Dip to $79,00010%

$175K traded · $175K in 24h