Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) odds
Polymarket traders make Hike–Pause–Hike the favorite for “Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)” at 75% (+0.5 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Hike–Pause–Pause at 21%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 4 outcomes right now.
All 5 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- 75%
Hike–Pause–Hike75%24h +0.5 ptsOdds 1.34US −292Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 21%Hike–Pause–Pause21%24h −0.5 ptsOdds 4.88US +388Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 2%Hike–Hike–Pause2%24h +0.8 ptsOdds 47.62US +4662Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 2%Hike–Hike–Hike2%24h −0.4 ptsOdds 54.05US +5305Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 1%Other1%24h +0.1 ptsOdds 86.96US +8596Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)” is a Polymarket event with 5 open outcomes. Hike–Pause–Hike leads at 75%, ahead of Hike–Pause–Pause at 21%. Hike–Pause–Hike is up 0.5 points over the last 24 hours and up 6.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $489K through the event so far, including $14K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on December 9, 2026.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
podairpod sold Yes at 74%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed bought No at 80%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Supernature88 bought Yes at 75%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed bought No at 79%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
podairpod sold No at 81%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
c10rmain bought Yes at 68%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
simpleman bought Yes at 66%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
podairpod sold No at 82%
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
simpleman bought Yes at 63%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
simpleman bought Yes at 63%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
simpleman bought Yes at 64%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
art369864 bought Yes at 22%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
simpleman bought Yes at 61%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
HolyMoses7 bought No at 75%
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
milkteaboba bought No at 52%
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
HolyMoses7 bought No at 46%
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Single-Challenge bought No at 99%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
omgdildakk bought Yes at 44%
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
ethBELIVER bought No at 75%
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Champions26 bought Yes at 40%
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
betwick bought No at 71%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
HolyMoses7 bought No at 70%
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
HolyMoses7 bought No at 87%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
melchior1248 bought No at 88%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
HolyMoses7 bought No at 79%
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
HolyMoses7 bought No at 81%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
balthazar bought No at 63%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
How this market resolves
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- Who is the favorite in Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)?
- Hike–Pause–Hike is the favorite at 75%, followed by Hike–Pause–Pause at 21% and Hike–Hike–Pause at 2%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
- Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
- Polymarket traders give Hike–Pause–Hike a 75% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.34 (American −292): $1 staked on Hike–Pause–Hike returns about $1.34 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 0.5 points.
Related odds
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
- Pause-Hike-Pause59%
- Pause-Hike-Hike18%
- Pause-Pause-Hike11%
$72K traded · $93 in 24h
Fed Decision in October?
- No change94%
- 25 bps increase6%
- 50+ bps increase0.3%
$64M traded · $2.1M in 24h
Fed Decision in December?
- 25 bps increase77%
- No change21%
- 50+ bps increase3%
$4.7M traded · $61K in 24h