cigarettes has made $17K in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #9,153 all time by profit, with 603M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 25, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$17K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 603M
- Portfolio value
- $653K
- Profit this month
- +$447K
- Win rate (last 200 closed)
- 62%
How cigarettes has traded
Across the 200 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 123 (62%) ended in profit and 77 in a loss, for −$100K in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 48%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. 125 of the 200 are about sports, judging by keywords in the market titles. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $153K together, the biggest is “Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?” (Yes) at 17% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
No · entry 45% · closed May 19, 2025
+$2.5M
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
No · entry 61% · closed Nov 6, 2024
+$1.6M
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
No · entry 32% · closed Jun 2, 2025
+$1.2M
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
No · entry 74% · closed Apr 30, 2025
+$971K
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
No · entry 36% · closed Nov 12, 2024
+$712K
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
No · entry 5% · closed Jul 6, 2026
+$669K
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?
No · entry 69% · closed Nov 16, 2024
+$629K
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
No · entry 33% · closed Jun 28, 2025
+$479K
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series?
No · entry 67% · closed Nov 2, 2025
+$369K
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
No · entry 75% · closed Dec 10, 2025
+$351K
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
No · entry 58% · closed May 19, 2025
−$2.7M
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
No · entry 38% · closed Nov 6, 2024
−$1.6M
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
No · entry 68% · closed Jun 2, 2025
−$1.2M
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
No · entry 26% · closed Apr 30, 2025
−$958K
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?
No · entry 38% · closed Nov 16, 2024
−$770K
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
No · entry 64% · closed Nov 11, 2024
−$710K
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
No · entry 15% · closed Sep 19, 2025
−$596K
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
No · entry 67% · closed Jun 28, 2025
−$489K
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
No · entry 10% · closed Nov 5, 2025
−$394K
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?
No · entry 33% · closed Nov 4, 2025
−$384K
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?
Yes · entry 44%, now 84% · ends Oct 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$26K
+$12K P&L
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
No · entry 33%, now 30% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$18K
−$1,867 P&L
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
No · entry 44%, now 54% · ended Jun 3, 2026
$15K
+$2,737 P&L
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Yes · entry 31%, now 30% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$13K
−$752 P&L
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?
No · entry 73%, now 84% · ends Oct 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$11K
+$1,437 P&L
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?
Yes · entry 31%, now >99% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$10K
+$6,852 P&L
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
No · entry 95%, now 97% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$9,346
+$202 P&L
Will Rodri finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
No · entry 91%, now 93% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$7,550
+$158 P&L
Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
No · entry 82%, now 87% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$7,117
+$333 P&L
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes · entry 7%, now 13% · ends Oct 27, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$6,729
+$2,924 P&L
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
No · entry 81%, now 79% · ends Dec 9, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$6,121
−$160 P&L
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Yes · entry 35%, now 37% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$5,958
+$250 P&L
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes · entry 5%, now 13% · ends Oct 27, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$5,860
+$3,595 P&L
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?
Yes · entry 94%, now >99% · ended Oct 25, 2026
$5,333
+$339 P&L
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?
No · entry 66%, now 50% · ends Oct 27, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$5,287
−$1,798 P&L
Recent trades
Bought No at 8%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Bought No at 8%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Bought LYON at 16%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner
Bought Yes at 40%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Bought Yes at 40%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Bought Yes at 0.3%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 2 Real Madrid CF?
Bought No at 1%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?
Bought No at 1%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?
Bought No at 1%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?
Bought No at 1%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?
Bought Yes at 2%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?
Bought Yes at 54%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Bought Yes at 43%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Bought Yes at 38%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Bought Yes at 38%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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