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Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory odds

Polymarket traders make Flávio Bolsonaro <4% the favorite for “Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory” at 46% (+3.5 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Lula da Silva <4% at 30%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Oct 5Oct 25
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%Lula da Silva <4%Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%

All 8 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory” is a Polymarket event with 8 open outcomes. Flávio Bolsonaro <4% leads at 46%, ahead of Lula da Silva <4% at 30%. Flávio Bolsonaro <4% is up 3.5 points over the last 24 hours and up 6.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $7.9M through the event so far, including $2.0M in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on October 26, 2026.

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The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Who is the favorite in Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory?
Flávio Bolsonaro <4% is the favorite at 46%, followed by Lula da Silva <4% at 30% and Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% at 22%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Polymarket traders give Flávio Bolsonaro <4% a 46% chance, which is decimal odds of 2.20 (American +120): $1 staked on Flávio Bolsonaro <4% returns about $2.20 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 3.5 points.

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