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Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026 odds

Polymarket traders put the chance of Yes at 22% and No at 79% for “Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026” (Yes −1.0 pts in the last 24 hours).

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Chance of Yes over the last 30 days

Price of a Yes share.

Sep 26Oct 25

Yes and No odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026” is a Polymarket market with two outcomes. Yes is priced at 22% and No at 79%; Yes is down 1.0 points over the last 24 hours and down 1.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $4.2M through the market so far, including $254K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026.

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How this market resolves

A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

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Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Polymarket currently prices Yes at 22% (decimal odds 4.65, American +365) and No at 79% (decimal odds 1.27, American −365). The price of a Yes share is the market's implied probability that this happens.
When does this market close?
The listed end date is November 4, 2026. Read the resolution rules on this page to see what counts and who decides.

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