Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027? Live odds
Polymarket traders put the chance of Yes at 11% and No at 89% for “Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027” (Yes unchanged in the last 24 hours).
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Chance of Yes over the last 30 days
Price of a Yes share.
Yes and No odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- Yes11%11%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 9.09US +809Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- No89%89%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 1.12US −809Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027” is a Polymarket market with two outcomes. Yes is priced at 11% and No at 89%; Yes is unchanged over the last 24 hours and up 3.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $2,580 through the market so far, including $0 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
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How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
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- Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
- Polymarket currently prices Yes at 11% (decimal odds 9.09, American +809) and No at 89% (decimal odds 1.12, American −809). The price of a Yes share is the market's implied probability that this happens.
- When does this market close?
- The listed end date is January 1, 2027. Read the resolution rules on this page to see what counts and who decides.
