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Alaska Senate Election Winner odds

Polymarket traders make Mary Peltola the favorite for “Alaska Senate Election Winner” at 75% (unchanged in the last 24 hours), ahead of Sen. Dan Sullivan at 26%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 27Oct 27
Mary PeltolaSen. Dan SullivanAnn DienerDustin Darden

All 7 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Alaska Senate Election Winner” is a Polymarket event with 7 open outcomes. Mary Peltola leads at 75%, ahead of Sen. Dan Sullivan at 26%. Mary Peltola is unchanged over the last 24 hours and up 1.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $1.8M through the event so far, including $107K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Who is the favorite in Alaska Senate Election Winner?
Mary Peltola is the favorite at 75%, followed by Sen. Dan Sullivan at 26% and Ann Diener at <0.1%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket traders give Mary Peltola a 75% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.34 (American −292): $1 staked on Mary Peltola returns about $1.34 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved by less than 0.1 points.

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