paddaa has made $279K in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #745 all time by profit, with 18M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 25, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$279K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 18M
- Portfolio value
- $155K
- Profit this month
- +$480K
- Win rate (last 191 closed)
- 56%
How paddaa has traded
Across the 191 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 107 (56%) ended in profit and 84 in a loss, for +$21K in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 43%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $94K together, the biggest is “Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?” (No) at 14% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Yes · entry 72% · closed Jun 18, 2026
+$21K
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Yes · entry 2% · closed Jul 1, 2026
+$16K
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?
No · entry 6% · closed Aug 30, 2026
+$12K
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Yes · entry 30% · closed Jul 6, 2026
+$12K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
No · entry 22% · closed Jun 21, 2026
+$12K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes · entry 17% · closed Aug 2, 2026
+$11K
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Yes · entry 71% · closed Aug 12, 2026
+$11K
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?
Yes · entry 29% · closed Sep 22, 2026
+$7,994
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Yes · entry 6% · closed May 16, 2026
+$7,849
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 8% · closed Aug 1, 2026
+$7,672
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
No · entry 15% · closed Aug 12, 2026
−$22K
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
No · entry >99% · closed Jul 1, 2026
−$14K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?
No · entry 78% · closed Sep 22, 2026
−$12K
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
No · entry 37% · closed Jun 12, 2026
−$8,208
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
No · entry 32% · closed Apr 8, 2026
−$7,881
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
Yes · entry 81% · closed Sep 22, 2026
−$6,935
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?
No · entry 85% · closed Oct 25, 2026
−$6,000
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
No · entry 21% · closed Jun 17, 2026
−$5,343
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?
No · entry 65% · closed Jul 2, 2026
−$4,985
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
No · entry 96% · closed Mar 4, 2026
−$4,704
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
No · entry 67%, now 75% · ends Nov 5, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$13K
+$1,320 P&L
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
No · entry 52%, now 59% · ends Nov 16, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$13K
+$1,538 P&L
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
No · entry 71%, now 75% · ends Oct 28, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$12K
+$645 P&L
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
No · entry 62%, now 77% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$8,069
+$1,566 P&L
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
No · entry 82%, now 82% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$7,934
−$66 P&L
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
No · entry 64%, now 66% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$6,141
+$141 P&L
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?
No · entry 43%, now 67% · ends Dec 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$5,069
+$1,801 P&L
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
No · entry 86%, now 88% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,826
+$131 P&L
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?
No · entry 34%, now 39% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,341
+$478 P&L
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Yes · entry 65%, now 66% · ends Nov 29, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,341
+$55 P&L
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
No · entry 86%, now 86% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,059
−$13 P&L
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Yes · entry 44%, now 35% · ends Oct 28, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$3,205
−$805 P&L
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?
No · entry 65%, now 66% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,819
+$49 P&L
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?
No · entry 34%, now 42% · ends Apr 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,762
+$557 P&L
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
Yes · entry 31%, now 34% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,648
+$206 P&L
Recent trades
Sold Yes at 7%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?
Sold Yes at 4%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?
Bought No at 43%
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?
Bought No at 62%
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?
Bought No at 54%
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
Sold Yes at 7%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?
Sold Yes at 4%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?
Bought Yes at 34%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Sold Yes at 64%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Bought No at 72%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
Sold Yes at 10%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?
Sold Yes at 9%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?
Bought No at 88%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
Bought No at 88%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
Bought Yes at 69%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
More to explore: full leaderboard, live whale trades, events with live odds and how to start.