What if you bet $100 on Trump on Polymarket?
A $100 bet on Trump at the opening price of 40.5¢ (6 Jan 2024) would have paid $247 when the market resolved, a 2.5x return. A week before the result, at 66.85¢, the same $100 would have paid $150.
Hindsight only. Nobody knew the result at the time, and early prices were often thin. Past results do not predict future ones, and you can lose what you trade.
What $100 on Trump would have become
A share costs its price in dollars (40¢ is $0.40) and pays $1 if the outcome wins, so a $100 bet at 40¢ buys 250 shares and returns $250. Here is that sum at the key moments of the market.
Lowest price (the opening price)
6 Jan 2024 · price 40.5¢
$100 would have paid $247
2.5x return
30 days before the result
7 Oct 2024 · price 50.95¢
$100 would have paid $196
2x return
7 days before the result
30 Oct 2024 · price 66.85¢
$100 would have paid $150
1.5x return
1 day before the result
5 Nov 2024 · price 62.25¢
$100 would have paid $161
1.6x return
Try your own stake and entry day
Change the amount, then drag across the chart or use the slider to pick the day you would have bought. The line is the price of a Trump share over the life of the market.
Entry point
Entry on 6 Jan 2024 at 40.5¢ · decimal odds 2.47
- Shares bought
- 247
- Payout if Trump won
- $247
- Profit
- +$147
- Return
- 2.5x
This market has resolved, so it cannot be traded now. On live markets Polymarket charges takers a fee on most trades, which would shave a little off these figures; see our guide to Polymarket fees.
What happened and why the odds moved
Polymarket's Presidential Election Winner 2024 market asked one question: who would win the US presidential election on November 5, 2024? Every candidate had a share that paid $1 if they won and $0 if not. Donald Trump's share is the one this page follows.
The race changed shape several times. Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate until his June 27 debate with Trump raised doubts about his campaign. On July 13 Trump survived an assassination attempt at a rally in Pennsylvania. On July 21 Biden ended his campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who took his place on the ticket, and Harris and Trump debated on September 10. The timeline below marks each of these dates with the price the day before and the day after.
On Election Day the market followed the count state by state. Trump won 312 electoral votes to Harris's 226, and 49.8% of the popular vote to her 48.3%. The race was called for him on November 6. His shares then settled at $1, and every other candidate's shares resolved to $0.
Timeline with the Trump price
Price of a Trump share the day before each date and the day after it.
Biden and Trump meet in the first general-election debate
Trump price: 59.5¢ then 62.5¢
Assassination attempt on Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania
Trump price: 59.5¢ then 69.5¢
Biden ends his campaign and endorses Harris
Trump price: 63.5¢ then 64.5¢
Harris and Trump debate
Trump price: 51.75¢ then 49.3¢
Election Day; the race is called for Trump on November 6
Trump price: 57.05¢ then 99.85¢
Sources for the events above: 2024 United States presidential election (Wikipedia).
The other side: $100 on Kamala Harris
$0
Kamala Harris peaked at 53.9¢ on 16 Aug 2024. At that price $100 buys 186 shares, which would have felt like a strong bet at the time. Kamala Harris did not win, so every one of those shares resolved to $0.
Every market has losers, and only one outcome pays. The calculator above shows the best case in hindsight; picking an outcome before the result is known can go the other way.
Markets like this are open now
This one is settled, but Polymarket lists new questions on the same kind of event all the time. These pages follow them live:
- 2028 presidential election odds · Who traders back to win the White House in 2028.
- 2028 Republican nominee odds · Live prices on the next Republican candidate for president.
We suggest $20 as a sensible first deposit. New to Polymarket? Our first-trade guide walks through it.
Common questions
Answers use this market’s price history. See how Polymarket odds work if the prices are new to you.
- How much would $100 on Trump have made on Polymarket?
- At the opening price of 40.5¢ (6 Jan 2024), $100 buys 247 shares. Each winning share paid $1, so the bet would have returned $247, a profit of $147. One week before the result (66.85¢) the same $100 would have returned $150. These are hindsight figures before fees.
- What were the odds on Trump a week before the result?
- Seven days before the last price in our data, Trump traded at 66.85¢ on 30 Oct 2024, an implied chance of 67%. That is decimal odds of 1.50 (American −202). One day before the result the price was 62.25¢.
- What would $100 on Kamala Harris have been worth?
- Nothing. Kamala Harris peaked at 53.9¢ on 16 Aug 2024, a price at which $100 buys 186 shares, but Kamala Harris did not win and those shares resolved to $0. A winning share pays $1 and a losing share pays nothing.
- Can I still bet on this market?
- No. This market has already resolved (our price history ends on 6 Nov 2024), so its shares can no longer be traded. Polymarket lists new markets on similar questions, such as the 2028 presidential election odds on this site. Taker fees on current markets (see our Polymarket fees guide) would take a small slice of any return, and past results do not predict future ones.
How we calculate this
Data. Prices come from Polymarket’s public price-history endpoint (documentation), one sample every 12 hours for the winning outcome of “Presidential Election Winner 2024”, from 5 Jan 2024 to 6 Nov 2024. The price of a share is also the market’s implied probability.
Formula. Shares = amount ÷ price. Payout = shares × $1, because a winning share pays $1. Profit = payout − amount. The return is $1 ÷ price. Decimal odds are the same number.
Key moments. The opening price is the sample about a day after the first one, because the first samples are often a placeholder. The lowest price is the lowest sample since then. The 30-, 7- and 1-day prices are the last sample at or before that many days ahead of the final sample, which is when the result was known or, for single-game finals, the last price before the deciding game began.
Limits. Samples every 12 hours can miss a brief low or high. A price is a quote, not a guaranteed fill: real orders pay the spread, can move the price in thin markets, and early prices in a new market are often thin. Fees are not included. The figures describe the past and are not advice.
Updated . Original market: Presidential Election Winner 2024 on Polymarket (affiliate link).
More hindsight bets
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$100 at 0.95¢ (28 Jun 2024) paid
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$100 at 11.5¢ (10 Oct 2026) paid
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