What if you bet $100 on Kamala Harris to win the 2024 Democratic nomination?
A $100 bet on Kamala Harris at its lowest price of 0.95¢ (28 Jun 2024) would have paid $10,526 when the market resolved, a 105x return. A week before the result, at 96.4¢, the same $100 would have paid $104.
Hindsight only. Nobody knew the result at the time, and early prices were often thin. Past results do not predict future ones, and you can lose what you trade.
What $100 on Kamala Harris would have become
A share costs its price in dollars (40¢ is $0.40) and pays $1 if the outcome wins, so a $100 bet at 40¢ buys 250 shares and returns $250. Here is that sum at the key moments of the market.
Opening price
14 Jan 2024 · price 3.55¢
$100 would have paid $2,817
28x return
Lowest price
28 Jun 2024 · price 0.95¢
$100 would have paid $10,526
105x return
30 days before the result
6 Jul 2024 · price 39.7¢
$100 would have paid $252
2.5x return
7 days before the result
30 Jul 2024 · price 96.4¢
$100 would have paid $104
1x return
1 day before the result
5 Aug 2024 · price 98.85¢
$100 would have paid $101
1x return
Try your own stake and entry day
Change the amount, then drag across the chart or use the slider to pick the day you would have bought. The line is the price of a Kamala Harris share over the life of the market.
Entry point
Entry on 28 Jun 2024 at 0.95¢ · decimal odds 105.26
- Shares bought
- 10,526
- Payout if Kamala Harris won
- $10,526
- Profit
- +$10,426
- Return
- 105x
This market has resolved, so it cannot be traded now. On live markets Polymarket charges takers a fee on most trades, which would shave a little off these figures; see our guide to Polymarket fees.
What happened and why the odds moved
Polymarket's Democratic Nominee 2024 market asked who would be the Democratic Party's candidate for president. For most of the primary season the answer looked settled. Joe Biden, the incumbent, was the heavy favourite, and Vice President Kamala Harris was one of many long shots.
That changed after the June 27 debate with Donald Trump, which raised doubts about Biden's campaign. On July 21, 2024, Biden ended his bid and endorsed Harris. She became the presumptive nominee the next day, and the Democratic Party's virtual roll call, held between August 1 and August 5, confirmed her with about 97% of delegate votes. The market resolved to Harris.
This is a market about the nomination, not the presidency: Harris's price here is the chance she would be the party's candidate, which is a different bet from winning in November. It is also one of the cleanest examples of why long-shot prices exist. An event nobody could schedule turned a tiny probability into a certainty within weeks. The timeline below marks each step with the price the day before and the day after.
Timeline with the Kamala Harris price
Price of a Kamala Harris share the day before each date and the day after it.
Biden and Trump meet in the first general-election debate
Kamala Harris price: 1.3¢ then 8.3¢
Biden ends his campaign and endorses Harris
Kamala Harris price: 56.1¢ then 81.25¢
Harris becomes the presumptive nominee
Kamala Harris price: 53.75¢ then 91¢
Virtual roll call of delegates ends; Harris is confirmed as the nominee
Kamala Harris price: 98.85¢ then 98.9¢
Sources for the events above: 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries (Wikipedia).
The other side: $100 on Joe Biden
$0
Joe Biden peaked at 90.5¢ on 6 May 2024. At that price $100 buys 110 shares, which would have felt like a strong bet at the time. Joe Biden did not win, so every one of those shares resolved to $0.
Every market has losers, and only one outcome pays. The calculator above shows the best case in hindsight; picking an outcome before the result is known can go the other way.
Markets like this are open now
This one is settled, but Polymarket lists new questions on the same kind of event all the time. These pages follow them live:
- 2028 Democratic nominee odds · Live prices on the next Democratic candidate for president.
- 2028 Republican nominee odds · Live prices on the next Republican candidate for president.
We suggest $20 as a sensible first deposit. New to Polymarket? Our first-trade guide walks through it.
Common questions
Answers use this market’s price history. See how Polymarket odds work if the prices are new to you.
- How much would $100 on Kamala Harris have made on Polymarket?
- At its lowest price of 0.95¢ (28 Jun 2024), $100 buys 10,526 shares. Each winning share paid $1, so the bet would have returned $10,526, a profit of $10,426. One week before the result (96.4¢) the same $100 would have returned $104. These are hindsight figures before fees.
- What were the odds on Kamala Harris a week before the result?
- Seven days before the last price in our data, Kamala Harris traded at 96.4¢ on 30 Jul 2024, an implied chance of 96%. That is decimal odds of 1.04 (American −2678). One day before the result the price was 98.85¢.
- What would $100 on Joe Biden have been worth?
- Nothing. Joe Biden peaked at 90.5¢ on 6 May 2024, a price at which $100 buys 110 shares, but Joe Biden did not win and those shares resolved to $0. A winning share pays $1 and a losing share pays nothing.
- Can I still bet on this market?
- No. This market has already resolved (our price history ends on 6 Aug 2024), so its shares can no longer be traded. Polymarket lists new markets on similar questions, such as the 2028 Democratic nominee odds on this site. Taker fees on current markets (see our Polymarket fees guide) would take a small slice of any return, and past results do not predict future ones.
How we calculate this
Data. Prices come from Polymarket’s public price-history endpoint (documentation), one sample every 12 hours for the winning outcome of “Democratic Nominee 2024”, from 13 Jan 2024 to 6 Aug 2024. The price of a share is also the market’s implied probability.
Formula. Shares = amount ÷ price. Payout = shares × $1, because a winning share pays $1. Profit = payout − amount. The return is $1 ÷ price. Decimal odds are the same number.
Key moments. The opening price is the sample about a day after the first one, because the first samples are often a placeholder. The lowest price is the lowest sample since then. The 30-, 7- and 1-day prices are the last sample at or before that many days ahead of the final sample, which is when the result was known or, for single-game finals, the last price before the deciding game began.
Limits. Samples every 12 hours can miss a brief low or high. A price is a quote, not a guaranteed fill: real orders pay the spread, can move the price in thin markets, and early prices in a new market are often thin. Fees are not included. The figures describe the past and are not advice.
Updated . Original market: Democratic Nominee 2024 on Polymarket (affiliate link).
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