What if you bet $100 on Lula in Brazil's 2026 election?
A $100 bet on Lula at its lowest price of 11.5¢ (10 Oct 2026) would have paid $870 when the market resolved, a 8.7x return. A week before the result, at 23.5¢, the same $100 would have paid $426.
Hindsight only. Nobody knew the result at the time, and early prices were often thin. Past results do not predict future ones, and you can lose what you trade.
What $100 on Lula would have become
A share costs its price in dollars (40¢ is $0.40) and pays $1 if the outcome wins, so a $100 bet at 40¢ buys 250 shares and returns $250. Here is that sum at the key moments of the market.
Opening price
20 Sep 2025 · price 48.5¢
$100 would have paid $206
2.1x return
Lowest price
10 Oct 2026 · price 11.5¢
$100 would have paid $870
8.7x return
30 days before the result
25 Sep 2026 · price 43.5¢
$100 would have paid $230
2.3x return
7 days before the result
17 Oct 2026 · price 23.5¢
$100 would have paid $426
4.3x return
1 day before the result
24 Oct 2026 · price 23.5¢
$100 would have paid $426
4.3x return
Try your own stake and entry day
Change the amount, then drag across the chart or use the slider to pick the day you would have bought. The line is the price of a Lula share over the life of the market.
Entry point
Entry on 10 Oct 2026 at 11.5¢ · decimal odds 8.70
- Shares bought
- 870
- Payout if Lula won
- $870
- Profit
- +$770
- Return
- 8.7x
This market has resolved, so it cannot be traded now. On live markets Polymarket charges takers a fee on most trades, which would shave a little off these figures; see our guide to Polymarket fees.
What happened and why the odds moved
Polymarket's Brazil Presidential Election market opened in September 2025 and covered the whole process: the first round on October 4, 2026 and, because no candidate won a majority, the October 25 runoff. It resolved to whichever candidate won the presidency, with any second round counting.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva went into the campaign as the market's favourite, but Flávio Bolsonaro overtook him in the market in September. On October 4 Lula finished second in the first round, with 45.2% of the vote to Bolsonaro's 47.0%, and the market swung further against him. Bolsonaro became the heavy favourite for the runoff, and Lula's price fell to its lowest of the entire campaign within days.
The runoff was close. Lula won about 51.8% of the valid vote to Bolsonaro's 48.2%, on a turnout of 80.8%, according to the final tally reported by Al Jazeera, and secured a fourth term. Analysts pointed to a strong turnout drive among younger voters and a shift to digital campaigning after the first round. The timeline below marks both rounds.
Timeline with the Lula price
Price of a Lula share the day before each date and the day after it.
First round: Bolsonaro 47.0%, Lula 45.2%
Lula price: 41.5¢ then 15.5¢
Runoff: Lula wins with about 51.8% of the valid vote
Lula price: 23.5¢ then 21.5¢
Sources for the events above: How did Lula beat Bolsonaro after losing the first round? (Al Jazeera).
The other side: $100 on Flávio Bolsonaro
$0
Flávio Bolsonaro peaked at 88.95¢ on 10 Oct 2026. At that price $100 buys 112 shares, which would have felt like a strong bet at the time. Flávio Bolsonaro did not win, so every one of those shares resolved to $0.
Every market has losers, and only one outcome pays. The calculator above shows the best case in hindsight; picking an outcome before the result is known can go the other way.
Markets like this are open now
This one is settled, but Polymarket lists new questions on the same kind of event all the time. These pages follow them live:
- 2028 presidential election odds · Who traders back to win the White House in 2028.
- all live Polymarket odds · Elections, sports, crypto and culture, updated every few minutes.
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Common questions
Answers use this market’s price history. See how Polymarket odds work if the prices are new to you.
- How much would $100 on Lula have made on Polymarket?
- At its lowest price of 11.5¢ (10 Oct 2026), $100 buys 870 shares. Each winning share paid $1, so the bet would have returned $870, a profit of $770. One week before the result (23.5¢) the same $100 would have returned $426. These are hindsight figures before fees.
- What were the odds on Lula a week before the result?
- Seven days before the last price in our data, Lula traded at 23.5¢ on 17 Oct 2026, an implied chance of 24%. That is decimal odds of 4.26 (American +326). One day before the result the price was 23.5¢.
- What would $100 on Flávio Bolsonaro have been worth?
- Nothing. Flávio Bolsonaro peaked at 88.95¢ on 10 Oct 2026, a price at which $100 buys 112 shares, but Flávio Bolsonaro did not win and those shares resolved to $0. A winning share pays $1 and a losing share pays nothing.
- Can I still bet on this market?
- No. This market has already resolved (our price history ends on 25 Oct 2026), so its shares can no longer be traded. Polymarket lists new markets on similar questions, such as the 2028 presidential election odds on this site. Taker fees on current markets (see our Polymarket fees guide) would take a small slice of any return, and past results do not predict future ones.
How we calculate this
Data. Prices come from Polymarket’s public price-history endpoint (documentation), one sample every 12 hours for the winning outcome of “Brazil Presidential Election”, from 19 Sep 2025 to 25 Oct 2026. The price of a share is also the market’s implied probability.
Formula. Shares = amount ÷ price. Payout = shares × $1, because a winning share pays $1. Profit = payout − amount. The return is $1 ÷ price. Decimal odds are the same number.
Key moments. The opening price is the sample about a day after the first one, because the first samples are often a placeholder. The lowest price is the lowest sample since then. The 30-, 7- and 1-day prices are the last sample at or before that many days ahead of the final sample, which is when the result was known or, for single-game finals, the last price before the deciding game began.
Limits. Samples every 12 hours can miss a brief low or high. A price is a quote, not a guaranteed fill: real orders pay the spread, can move the price in thin markets, and early prices in a new market are often thin. Fees are not included. The figures describe the past and are not advice.
Updated . Original market: Brazil Presidential Election on Polymarket (affiliate link).
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