What if you bet $100 on Nicușor Dan in Romania's 2025 election?
A $100 bet on Nicușor Dan at its lowest price of 14¢ (22 Jan 2025) would have paid $714 when the market resolved, a 7.1x return. A week before the result, at 33.5¢, the same $100 would have paid $299.
Hindsight only. Nobody knew the result at the time, and early prices were often thin. Past results do not predict future ones, and you can lose what you trade.
What $100 on Nicușor Dan would have become
A share costs its price in dollars (40¢ is $0.40) and pays $1 if the outcome wins, so a $100 bet at 40¢ buys 250 shares and returns $250. Here is that sum at the key moments of the market.
Opening price
19 Jan 2025 · price 26.5¢
$100 would have paid $377
3.8x return
Lowest price
22 Jan 2025 · price 14¢
$100 would have paid $714
7.1x return
30 days before the result
19 Apr 2025 · price 30.5¢
$100 would have paid $328
3.3x return
7 days before the result
12 May 2025 · price 33.5¢
$100 would have paid $299
3x return
1 day before the result
18 May 2025 · price 48¢
$100 would have paid $208
2.1x return
Try your own stake and entry day
Change the amount, then drag across the chart or use the slider to pick the day you would have bought. The line is the price of a Nicușor Dan share over the life of the market.
Entry point
Entry on 22 Jan 2025 at 14¢ · decimal odds 7.14
- Shares bought
- 714
- Payout if Nicușor Dan won
- $714
- Profit
- +$614
- Return
- 7.1x
This market has resolved, so it cannot be traded now. On live markets Polymarket charges takers a fee on most trades, which would shave a little off these figures; see our guide to Polymarket fees.
What happened and why the odds moved
Romania voted again in 2025 because the Constitutional Court annulled the November 2024 presidential election on December 6, 2024, two days before the runoff, citing alleged Russian interference in favour of Călin Georgescu. A new vote was set for 2025, and Polymarket opened a market on the winner in January.
In the first round on May 4, 2025, George Simion, leader of the AUR party, won 41.0%. Independent Nicușor Dan, the mayor of Bucharest, finished second with 21.0%, narrowly ahead of Crin Antonescu, to reach the runoff. Polls between the two rounds were split, some showing Simion ahead and others Dan, and after the first round the market made Simion the clear favourite.
Dan gained in the final days of the campaign and won the runoff with 53.6% of the vote to Simion's 46.4%, on a turnout of 64.7%. Simion conceded and then challenged the result in court. The Constitutional Court rejected the challenge on May 22, and Dan took office on May 26, 2025. The timeline below marks the two rounds.
Timeline with the Nicușor Dan price
Price of a Nicușor Dan share the day before each date and the day after it.
First round: Simion 41.0%, Dan 21.0%
Nicușor Dan price: 27.5¢ then 31.5¢
Runoff: Dan 53.6%, Simion 46.4%
Nicușor Dan price: 47.5¢ then 99.9¢
Sources for the events above: 2025 Romanian presidential election (Wikipedia).
The other side: $100 on George Simion
$0
George Simion peaked at 73.5¢ on 6 May 2025. At that price $100 buys 136 shares, which would have felt like a strong bet at the time. George Simion did not win, so every one of those shares resolved to $0.
Every market has losers, and only one outcome pays. The calculator above shows the best case in hindsight; picking an outcome before the result is known can go the other way.
Markets like this are open now
This one is settled, but Polymarket lists new questions on the same kind of event all the time. These pages follow them live:
- 2028 presidential election odds · Who traders back to win the White House in 2028.
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Common questions
Answers use this market’s price history. See how Polymarket odds work if the prices are new to you.
- How much would $100 on Nicușor Dan have made on Polymarket?
- At its lowest price of 14¢ (22 Jan 2025), $100 buys 714 shares. Each winning share paid $1, so the bet would have returned $714, a profit of $614. One week before the result (33.5¢) the same $100 would have returned $299. These are hindsight figures before fees.
- What were the odds on Nicușor Dan a week before the result?
- Seven days before the last price in our data, Nicușor Dan traded at 33.5¢ on 12 May 2025, an implied chance of 34%. That is decimal odds of 2.99 (American +199). One day before the result the price was 48¢.
- What would $100 on George Simion have been worth?
- Nothing. George Simion peaked at 73.5¢ on 6 May 2025, a price at which $100 buys 136 shares, but George Simion did not win and those shares resolved to $0. A winning share pays $1 and a losing share pays nothing.
- Can I still bet on this market?
- No. This market has already resolved (our price history ends on 19 May 2025), so its shares can no longer be traded. Polymarket lists new markets on similar questions, such as the 2028 presidential election odds on this site. Taker fees on current markets (see our Polymarket fees guide) would take a small slice of any return, and past results do not predict future ones.
How we calculate this
Data. Prices come from Polymarket’s public price-history endpoint (documentation), one sample every 12 hours for the winning outcome of “Romania Presidential Election Winner”, from 18 Jan 2025 to 19 May 2025. The price of a share is also the market’s implied probability.
Formula. Shares = amount ÷ price. Payout = shares × $1, because a winning share pays $1. Profit = payout − amount. The return is $1 ÷ price. Decimal odds are the same number.
Key moments. The opening price is the sample about a day after the first one, because the first samples are often a placeholder. The lowest price is the lowest sample since then. The 30-, 7- and 1-day prices are the last sample at or before that many days ahead of the final sample, which is when the result was known or, for single-game finals, the last price before the deciding game began.
Limits. Samples every 12 hours can miss a brief low or high. A price is a quote, not a guaranteed fill: real orders pay the spread, can move the price in thin markets, and early prices in a new market are often thin. Fees are not included. The figures describe the past and are not advice.
Updated . Original market: Romania Presidential Election Winner on Polymarket (affiliate link).
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