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Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Live odds

Polymarket traders put the chance of Yes at 97% and No at 3% for “Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled” (Yes −0.7 pts in the last 24 hours).

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Chance of Yes over the last 30 days

Price of a Yes share.

Sep 27Oct 27

Yes and No odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled” is a Polymarket market with two outcomes. Yes is priced at 97% and No at 3%; Yes is down 0.7 points over the last 24 hours and down 1.7 points over the past week. Traders have put $903K through the market so far, including $87K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Polymarket currently prices Yes at 97% (decimal odds 1.03, American −3674) and No at 3% (decimal odds 37.74, American +3674). The price of a Yes share is the market's implied probability that this happens.
When does this market close?
The listed end date is January 1, 2027. Read the resolution rules on this page to see what counts and who decides.

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