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Which company has best AI model end of 2026? Live odds

Polymarket traders make Anthropic the favorite for “Which company has best AI model end of 2026” at 54% (+4.0 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Google at 36%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 26
AnthropicGoogleOpenAIMeta

All 15 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Which company has best AI model end of 2026” is a Polymarket event with 15 open outcomes. Anthropic leads at 54%, ahead of Google at 36%. Anthropic is up 4.0 points over the last 24 hours and up 4.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $3.0M through the event so far, including $58K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on December 31, 2026.

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The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Who is the favorite in Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Anthropic is the favorite at 54%, followed by Google at 36% and OpenAI at 6%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Polymarket traders give Anthropic a 54% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.87 (American −115): $1 staked on Anthropic returns about $1.87 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 4.0 points.

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